Sunday Night Football in Week 17 of the NFL season pits the visiting Atlanta Falcons against the Washington Commanders.
It is a massive matchup for both teams: Atlanta is atop the NFC South but only via a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while Washington currently occupies the third and final wild-card spot in the NFC but has not yet clinched a playoff berth.
Now, it’s time to break down the Falcons vs. Commanders matchup and discuss the best bets to make.
Week 16 could not have worked out better for the Falcons (8-7). They routed the New York Giants 34-7 and overtook Tampa Bay in the NFC South thanks to the Bucs’ loss at the Dallas Cowboys.
Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. made his first start and played well enough, completing 18/27 passes for 205 yards. His receivers dropped four passes, including one that resulted in Penix’s lone interception. Thanks a lot, Kyle Pitts!
Seemingly energized by the change under center, Atlanta’s rushing attack – led by Bijan Robinson – also did major damage and the defense turned in its most dominant performance of the season. Although Washington (10-5) boasts a superior record, it’s hard to be convinced by head coach Dan Quinn’s squad.
The defense gave up 37 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 33 to the Cincinnati Bengals, 30 to the Baltimore Ravens, 28 to the Pittsburgh Steelers and 59 in a pair of games against the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Commanders’ Hail Mary win over the Chicago Bears in October kind of summarizes their 2024 campaign, padding their record with competitive victories over bad opponents. They did well to beat Philadelphia last week, but consistency is not this team’s strong suit.
The Falcons may not necessarily win this one outright, but they can certainly go close.
As competent as Penix looked this past Sunday, he is still a quarterback who has made only one start in his NFL career. Given their QB’s inexperience and their improving defense, the Falcons are generally a good Under bet at the moment – as they have been most of the season.
They are 5-10 O/U and the Under has cashed in six of their last seven games. It’s also worth noting that Penix does not have an easy matchup on his hands. The Commanders are fourth in passing defense, fourth in sack percentage and sixth in opponents’ completion percentage.
On the other side of the ball, Atlanta’s defense is ninth in both yards per rushing attempt and yards per pass attempt. Jayden Daniels remains extremely dangerous at the quarterback position, but he has cooled off considerably since a blistering hot start to his professional career.
All things considered, the Under looks like the best way to play this Sunday Night Football matchup.
Penix has not yet thrown his first touchdown pass in the NFL, but it feels like only a matter of time given his relatively encouraging performance last weekend.
Drake London could be the beneficiary – or one of the beneficiaries – on Sunday night. The former USC standout has scored seven TDs in 2024 to go along with his 978 receiving yards on 83 receptions and 127 targets.
London, who most recently found the end zone in Week 15 against the Las Vegas Raiders, now faces a Washington defense that has surrendered 24 touchdowns through the air. Only eight teams have allowed more.
Read more betting picks and predictions for the NFL on site.
Atlanta Falcons | +170 ML |
Washington Commanders | -205 ML |
Spread | WAS -4.0 |
Total Points | O/U 47.5 |
Bijan Robinson (ATL Falcons) | -150 |
Drake London (ATL Falcons) | +150 |
Darnell Mooney (ATL Falcons) | +210 |
Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS Commanders) | -138 |
Terry McLaurin (WAS Commanders) | +105 |
Jayden Daniels (WAS Commanders) | +120 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time