There is a massive clash in the American League East on tap as the Baltimore Orioles host the New York Yankees at Camden Yards on Friday in the first of a three-game series.
These two teams are in a dogfight for first place in the AL East and that should continue throughout the remainder of the season. As it stands, the Orioles currently have a two-game lead over the Yankees.
However, even though this three-game set is in Baltimore, it’s entirely possible that we could have a new division leader by the end of this weekend.
While both of these teams got off to scorching starts over the first two-and-a-half months of the season, the past couple of weeks have seen both teams fall off a cliff against all levels of competition.
This has particularly been apparent with the Yankees, as New York has dropped 18 of its last 25 games heading into this contest.
It doesn’t help that the Yankees lineup is pretty banged up as we approach the All-Star Break. Anthony Rizzo is out with a fractured arm, while Giancarlo Standon will also miss this series with an injury.
It’s no secret that the New York offense has struggled to support its superstars in Juan Soto and Aaron Judge at the top of the order and that has led to a prolonged offensive slump over the past month.
For this game, the Yankees will need to provide run support for ace Gerrit Cole, who has also struggled (6.75 ERA, 5.90 xERA) since returning from the injured list back in June.
The New York offense also doesn’t have the greatest numbers in the world against Orioles starter Cade Povich, who allowed just one run over 4.2 innings pitched against the Yankees back on June 19 and was able to pitch out of multiple jams in the Bronx.
Even with both teams struggling to find their best form, the Yankees’ problems are far more alarming heading into this series, particularly on the road.
Therefore, let’s go with the Orioles on the money line as home underdogs.
While both of these teams aren’t lacking for offensive firepower, the main reason for taking the under in this matchup is the starting pitching.
In fact, we saw this exact same starting pitching matchup back on June 19 and, while the game did finish with a 7-6 score, the only reason it went over the posted total was an Orioles bullpen collapse that led to an extra innings session where three additional runs were scored.
As previously mentioned, Cole hasn’t looked great since returning from the injured list for New York, but his best outing over the last month of the season was clearly against the Orioles at Yankee Stadium.
That should give him confidence heading into a matchup against a Baltimore lineup that has tallied just two runs over its last three home games.
On the other side, Povich will take on a Yankees lineup that is not only extremely top-heavy and unbalanced, it’s also a unit that hasn’t seen much of Povich to this point.
In fact, Soto, Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu and Ben Rice are a combined 0-of-8 against the Orioles starter, while Judge has yet to face Povich in his career.
There’s also the matter of the weather impacting this game. The forecast is calling for rain throughout the day in Baltimore, including about a 60 percent chance of precipitation during the game.
Therefore, the ball shouldn’t exactly be flying out of the yard despite the warmer temperatures, which helps the Under in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Between an ace in Cole who should pitch better than in his most recent outing and a left-hander in Povich - who already has experience against this Yankees lineup - it’s hard not to back the Under in this series opener at Camden Yards.
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New York Yankees | -140 ML |
Baltimore Orioles | +120 ML |
Run Line | NY Yankees -1.5 |
Total | O/U 9.0 |
Aaron Judge (New York Yankees) | +165 |
Juan Soto (New York Yankees) | +425 |
Gleybar Torres (New York Yankees) | +450 |
Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore Orioles) | +475 |
Anthony Santander (Baltimore Orioles) | +425 |
Adley Rutschman (Baltimore Orioles) | +600 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.