The Wisconsin Badgers face the No. 13 USC Trojans in Week 5 of the 2024 college football season.
Set to kick off at 3:30 PM ET on CBS, this Big Ten matchup comes at a pivotal point for both teams, each entering with a 2-1 record.
Wisconsin is coming off a bye week after a 42-10 home loss to No. 4 Alabama, where they not only lost the game but also their starting quarterback, Tyler Van Dyke, to a season-ending ACL injury.
Meanwhile, USC will look to bounce back after a heartbreaking 27-24 last-second defeat at No. 12 Michigan.
Both teams will be eager to bounce back, but Wisconsin has the unenviable task of traveling to Southern California to face a USC team looking to prove they belong among the top contenders.
With USC favored by -16.0 points and the total set at 51.5, let's dive into the key betting picks and predictions for this intriguing contest.
The line favoring USC by -16.0 points might seem appropriate given the state of these two programs, but there’s reason to believe Wisconsin can cover.
After all, this is a team built on physicality, and despite their disappointing performance against Alabama, they’re likely to rebound after an extra week of preparation under head coach Luke Fickell.
Moreover, USC’s emotional letdown from a tough road loss at Michigan could play a factor in this game.
Braedyn Locke, who took over as quarterback after Van Dyke’s injury, struggled against Alabama, but that was to be expected. He was thrust into the starting role mid-game against one of the nation’s best defenses.
With the benefit of the bye week, Locke should be more prepared to run Wisconsin's offense, which will lean heavily on the ground game led by Chez Mellusi and Tawee Walker.
While neither back offers explosive speed, both are capable of grinding out tough yards, which will be critical to keeping USC’s offense off the field.
On the other side, USC’s defense, although improved under coordinator D’Anton Lynn, still struggles against physical teams. Michigan exposed this weakness last week by racking up nearly 300 rushing yards.
Wisconsin will attempt to replicate that blueprint by controlling the clock and playing keep-away from USC’s offense. This line was initially set at -6 in USC’s favor on the look-ahead.
While each team’s form has contributed to a drastic pull of this line, I feel it is a bit of an overreaction. Even if Wisconsin doesn’t win outright, the Badgers have enough grit to stay within +16.0 points.
Given the nature of this matchup, the Under looks like a solid bet. Wisconsin, without their starting quarterback, will likely focus on ball control, relying on their rushing attack to chew up the clock and limit possessions.
The Badgers rank 125th in explosive run rate, meaning they aren't likely to break off big plays. Instead, they’ll methodically move the chains, which should shorten the game and keep the scoring down.
USC’s offense, led by Miller Moss, is known for its efficiency rather than explosiveness. While Moss has performed well, completing 65 percent of his passes for 890 yards, 5 touchdowns, and just 1 interception, the Trojans haven’t been hitting the deep ball consistently.
This could play into Wisconsin’s favor, as their defense, although shaky against Alabama, is still fundamentally sound enough to prevent big plays.
Moreover, USC is coming off a tough loss and a grueling travel schedule, having to immediately fly back to the West Coast after the Michigan game.
There’s potential for a slight hangover effect, especially if the Trojans start slowly. If Wisconsin can keep the game close early, USC might find it hard to pull away and rack up points.
Lincoln Riley’s squad showed tremendous resilience against Michigan, erasing a 14-3 halftime deficit and nearly pulling off the comeback.
The loss, however, was a gut punch, and the quick turnaround could leave the Trojans a bit flat early on. Still, the talent gap between these two teams, particularly with Wisconsin’s injury woes, leans heavily in USC’s favor.
A final scoreline around 28-14 in favor of USC seems reasonable, keeping the game Under 51.5 total points.
Read more betting picks and predictions for College Football on site.
Wisconsin | +500 ML |
USC | -700 ML |
Spread | USC -16.0 |
Total Points | O/U 51.5 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.