Boca Raton Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. James Madison Picks, Predictions and Odds

The Boca Raton Bowl presents a compelling contest between the 8-4 James Madison Dukes from the Sun Belt Conference and the 8-5 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers from Conference USA.

James Madison had an impressive season under their new head coach Bob Chesney, maintaining the program’s edge despite a late-season stumble. On the other hand, Western Kentucky has faced challenges, particularly on offense, following the loss of their starting quarterback early in the season. 

This game, set to take place at FAU Stadium on December 18 at 5:30 PM ET on ESPN, marks the first-ever meeting between these two programs.

Western Kentucky vs. James Madison betting picks and predictions

James Madison -7 (-110)

James Madison comes into this game as a 7-point favorite, and there are several reasons to back the Dukes to cover the spread.

First, the Dukes have a potent offense, which had been led by sophomore quarterback Alonza Barnett III. Barnett was impressive this season, accumulating 2,598 passing yards, 26 touchdown passes and only 4 interceptions. His dual-threat capability, with 442 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns, made him a constant menace. 

Although Barnett is dealing with an injury and unavailable for this game, the depth and versatility of the Dukes' offense can still pose significant problems for Western Kentucky. Washington transfer and veteran backup QB Dylan Morris could effectively manage the game against a Western Kentucky defense dealing with a lot of departures to the transfer portal.

The Dukes also have a balanced attack with running back George Pettaway, who has amassed 880 rushing yards on 148 carries.

While they don't rely heavily on their backfield, Pettaway does and will need to provide a solid foundation. Their receiving corps, featuring multiple pass-catchers with 400-570 yards each, ensures that the offense remains dynamic and unpredictable.

Western Kentucky, in contrast, has struggled offensively since losing starting quarterback TJ Finley. Backup QB Caden Veltkamp has put up respectable numbers but has not been able to match Finley's efficiency.

With the Hilltoppers' offense averaging less than 21 points in their last four games and suffering a 52-12 blowout loss to Jacksonville State in the Conference USA Championship, it's clear they have significant issues. And now, Veltkamp has entered the transfer portal and will miss this game.

Defensively, Western Kentucky is vulnerable, particularly against the run. They allow 221.9 rushing yards per game, and recent performances have shown a susceptibility to getting dominated on the ground. This weakness plays right into James Madison's strengths, especially if they decide to lean more on their running game to control the tempo.

James Madison's motivation to secure their first bowl victory, coupled with Western Kentucky's defensive struggles and offensive instability, makes the Dukes a strong pick to cover the 7-point spread.

Under 51.0 Total Points (-110)

The total for this game is set at 51 points, and the under is a favorable play for several reasons.

Firstly, Western Kentucky's offensive struggles are significant. With their top two quarterbacks unavailable and relying on a less experienced backup, it's unlikely they'll put up substantial points against a solid James Madison defense. The Hilltoppers have failed to score more than 21 points in their last four games, highlighting their offensive deficiencies.

While Morris will hand the ball off plenty and conduct a lot of short passing plays to get the ball in his playmakers’ hands, James Madison’s offense will look a lot less explosive without Barnett. 

Still, James Madison's defense, while not as dominant as last year, remains one of the best in the Sun Belt Conference. They are adept at limiting opponents' scoring opportunities, allowing just 1.57 points per drive, which ranks among the top in the nation. Their ability to control the game defensively will be crucial in keeping the score low.

Moreover, both teams have shown trends towards the under. The Hilltoppers have experienced six of their last nine games going under the total. Similarly, James Madison has seen the under hit in six of their last eight games.

These trends, combined with the teams' current form and circumstances, point towards a low-scoring affair.

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NCAAF on site.

Western Kentucky vs. James Madison odds

Western Kentucky	+220 ML
James Madison	-270 ML
Spread	James Madison -7.0
Total Points	O/U 51.0

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.