Hawaii Bowl: USF vs. San Jose State Picks, Predictions and Odds

The Hawaii Bowl is set for December 24 at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu where South Florida (USF) takes on San Jose State (SJSU).

San Jose State’s well-rounded offense and solid defensive metrics provide an edge against a South Florida team that struggled against quality opponents throughout 2024.

USF vs. San Jose State betting picks and predictions

San Jose State -3.5 (-110)

San Jose State’s offensive firepower, even without their star wideout Nick Nash, should carry them to victory. 

Nash, who declared for the NFL Draft after a season in which he led all of college football with 1,382 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns, will be missed, but the Spartans still boast one of the Mountain West's most efficient passing attacks. 

Quarterback Walker Eget has been solid since taking over as the starter, throwing for 2,224 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while completing 57.4% of his passes.

Eget’s go-to target will be Justin Lockhart, who steps into the spotlight with Nash out. 

Lockhart has racked up 52 catches for 973 yards and five touchdowns and has shown he’s more than capable of handling a heavier workload. His 300-yard advantage over USF’s leading receiver underscores the mismatch in offensive explosiveness between the two teams.

The Spartans’ offense has relied heavily on the passing game this season, and they’ll look to exploit a South Florida defense ranked 104th in Defensive Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback. 

USF has been particularly vulnerable against aerial attacks, allowing the second-most passing yards per game in the AAC. Eget and Lockhart should be able to connect consistently, giving the Spartans a clear path to move the ball effectively.

On the defensive side, San Jose State matches up well against USF’s run-heavy attack. The Spartans rank 49th nationally in Defensive EPA per rush, a key factor when facing a Bulls offense that has relied on its running backs – Kelley Joiner, Nay’Quan Wright, and Ta’Ron Keith – for much of its production. 

That trio combined for 1,674 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns, but the Spartans’ ability to limit efficiency on the ground could force USF into an uncomfortable position: leaning on an unreliable passing game.

For South Florida, quarterback play has been a rollercoaster this season. Starter Byrum Brown hasn’t played since suffering a leg injury on September 28 against Tulane, and his backup, Bryce Archie, has struggled in his absence. 

Archie has thrown just as many interceptions (nine) as touchdowns, while completing 58% of his passes for 1,679 yards in seven starts. Even if Brown makes a miraculous return, his ability to perform after such a long layoff is highly questionable.

San Jose State’s defensive strengths and South Florida’s struggles against better competition make the Spartans the clear pick at -3.5.

Under 63.5 Total Points (-110)

While San Jose State’s offense should do enough to cover the spread, the total for this game feels inflated at 63.5 points. South Florida has failed to score consistently against quality defenses this season, and this matchup could follow that same script.

Even with Byrum Brown under center earlier in the year, the Bulls struggled. USF was held to 16 points or fewer in losses to Alabama (42-16), Miami (50-15), Tulane (45-10), Memphis (21-3) and Navy (28-7). Against solid defensive units, South Florida has struggled to hit even 20 points, and there’s little reason to believe they’ll suddenly reverse that trend against a Spartan defense ranked 49th nationally in Defensive EPA per rush.

San Jose State’s defense thrives on forcing teams to throw the ball, which plays directly into USF’s weakness. Bryce Archie has been turnover-prone this season, and the Spartans’ ability to put the Bulls in passing situations should lead to mistakes, short drives and limited scoring opportunities.

On the flip side, while the Spartans are capable of putting up points, the absence of Nick Nash does lower their offensive ceiling. Walker Eget has shown flashes of brilliance, but his nine interceptions suggest he’s prone to mistakes under pressure. 

The Bulls’ defense has allowed a lot of yards this season, but the Spartans don’t offer too much in the run game, with Floyd Chalk IV, the Spartans’ lead back, having rushed for just 661 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.

This game could easily feature one team in the 30-point range (San Jose State) and the other failing to hit 20 (South Florida), keeping the total comfortably under 63.5 points.

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NCAAF on site.

USF vs. San Jose State odds

USF	+140 ML
San Jose State	-165 ML
Spread	San Jose State -3.5
Total Points	O/U 63.5

Read the latest NCAAF news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.