UNLV vs. Boise State: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The No. 20 UNLV Rebels take on the No. 10 Boise State Broncos in the Mountain West Championship Game on Friday, December 6.

This conference championship clash features two teams vying for not just conference supremacy but also a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Boise State enters as a four-point favorite, a line that reflects both their home-field advantage and their 29-24 win at UNLV in the regular season.

UNLV has been one of the biggest surprises in college football this year, finishing the regular season 10-2 and unbeaten on the road. The Rebels' offense, led by dual-threat quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, is explosive and dynamic.

Boise State, however, has been rock-solid all year, with an 11-1 record, a ferocious pass rush and one of the nation’s most productive running backs in Ashton Jeanty.

Friday’s rematch on the blue turf promises to be another tightly contested battle.

UNLV vs. Boise State betting picks and predictions

Boise State -4.0 (-110)

Boise State getting to play this game at home is a massive advantage. The Broncos have won 11 straight games at Albertsons Stadium, dating back to a loss to Central Florida in September 2023.

Out of those 11 victories, Boise State has won nine by double-digits, with a 22-point average margin of victory. Their lone loss this season came by just three points at top-ranked Oregon, which proved that this team can compete with the nation’s best.

UNLV, however, isn’t a team to overlook. The Rebels picked up wins at Houston and Kansas – two Power Four opponents – as underdogs.

UNLV has covered the spread in two straight games, including a dominant 34-14 victory over rival Nevada as 17.5-point favorites.

Even so, their performance against Boise State earlier this season is worth noting. The Rebels struggled to protect Williams, allowing six sacks, and couldn’t capitalize on opportunities late in the game to pull off the upset.

The Broncos defense is built around a relentless pass rush, which ranks second in the nation in sacks.

This unit has been particularly effective at putting quarterbacks into unfavorable down-and-distance situations, which could spell trouble for UNLV. If the Broncos can force Williams to beat them with his arm instead of his legs, they’ll have a good chance to control this game.

Boise State’s pass rush will have to be effective if they hope to limit the impact of UNLV’s star receiver, Ricky White, who has been a game-changer for the Rebels this season.

Regarding Boise State's offense, quarterback Maddux Madsen is the quintessential game manager who thrives in high-pressure situations.

In the first matchup with UNLV, Madsen passed for 209 yards and ran for two touchdowns, showing his ability to make plays when needed. Pair that with Jeanty’s power running, and Boise has the tools to wear down a UNLV defense that has been vulnerable against the run at times this season.

The cold, windy conditions in Boise also play into the Broncos’ favor. Teams that are used to playing indoors or in warm climates - which perfectly describes UNLV - often struggle in late-season outdoor games, and the Rebels haven’t played in Boise since 2016.

With temperatures expected to be below freezing by game-time, Boise State’s experience in these conditions gives them another edge and they should be able to win by more than a field goal.

Under 58.5 Total Points (-110)

This game sets up as a grind-it-out, defensive battle that favors the Under.

In their first meeting, the total points came to just 53 despite several high-leverage plays leading to quick scores.

Boise State converted four fourth-down attempts, one of which resulted in a touchdown. They also benefited from a short field following a turnover, which set up another score.

Even with those factors, the game stayed under the upcoming championship game's line of 58.5, and Friday’s rematch could be even lower-scoring given the weather conditions and what’s at stake.

Both teams have trended toward the Under recently. Boise State has gone below the total in five of its last seven games, leaning on its defense and methodical offense to control the pace.

UNLV has also seen the Under hit in four of its last six games, as their defense has tightened up down the stretch. With both teams capable of disrupting the other’s offensive rhythm, a low-scoring game feels likely.

Boise’s defense is particularly strong on early downs, ranking 21st nationally in early-down Expected Points Added (EPA). This ability to win on first and second down forces opponents into third-and-long situations, where the Broncos’ pass rush can tee off.

UNLV is no slouch defensively either, ranking 22nd in early-down EPA and showing they can contain even elite players like Jeanty, who was held to just 128 yards on 33 carries in the first matchup.

For UNLV, the key will be Williams' ability to create plays against a relentless Boise State pass rush.

Williams has accounted for more than 2,500 yards of offense and 26 total touchdowns this season, but he’s also taken a lot of hits.

On the flip side, Boise will look to Heisman Trophy contender Jeanty to control the clock and wear down the UNLV defense. Jeanty has had five 200-yard rushing games this season, but the Rebels showed they could limit him in their first matchup, holding him to a season-low 3.9 yards per carry.

If Jeanty struggles again, the Broncos may need Madsen to step up and make plays through the air, but it's safe to anticipate Boise State starting out with a run-first plan that will lead to longer drives and fewer possessions overall.

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Football on site.

UNLV vs. Boise State odds

UNLV	+155 ML
Boise State	-185 ML
Spread	Boise State -4.0
Total Points	O/U 58.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.