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Texas vs. Oklahoma: Picks, Predictions and Odds

Week 7 of the college football season brings us the historic Red River Rivalry matchup in the SEC between the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas.

This is a game that typically delivers some wild results over the years, so even though Texas is the considerable favorite in this contest, that doesn’t guarantee that the Longhorns are going to march into Dallas and emerge with an easy victory.

Oklahoma’s offense is slowly improving over the past few weeks, while its defense remains one of the better units in the SEC. Can the Sooners keep this one close? We’re about to find out. 

Texas vs. Oklahoma betting picks and predictions

Texas -14 (-110)

The biggest edge in this game should be the one that the Longhorns have offensively in this matchup. 

This is a complete unit, averaging just over 513 yards per game and ranking fifth nationally in offensive predicted points added since Week 2.

Compare this to Oklahoma’s 298 yards per game and bottom 10 national rank in PPA, and we have a major discrepancy on our hands in this game.

Additionally, the Longhorns score an average of 45 points per game and have racked up over five points per trip in non-garbage time red zone appearances since Week 2. That’s a dominant mark for one of the best offenses in the nation, and it should continue on Saturday.

On the other side, the Sooners average less than 30 points per game, and have tallied just 3.55 points per scoring opportunity over the last five weeks. To make matters worse, Oklahoma has been ravaged by injuries to a plethora of their wide receivers and key pieces on the offensive line. 

While the Sooners have been very good defensively to this point, Texas has been even better. Both teams have allowed the same amount of scoring opportunities over the last four weeks, but the Longhorns have surrendered just 1.93 points per opportunity in that span – 1.4 points better than the Sooners. 

Texas’ defense has also been much sturdier on a down-to-down basis, with a top 10 mark in defensive PPA compared to Oklahoma’s #23 ranking. The Sooners’ defense just struggled in an unconvincing win over Auburn, and as long as Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers is back to full health, he should be able to pick apart an Oklahoma secondary that is 93rd in opposing pass PPA and 99th in pass success.

Under 50.5 (-110)

This is a scenario where the game script for each team will tell the story for both the side and total on Saturday. If Oklahoma is going to keep this one within the two touchdown margin, then that likely means that the Sooners will have to limit this explosive Texas offense and turn this game into more of a grind it out affair.

Oklahoma should look to limit the amount of possessions that the Longhorns get in this game, and even in a massive rivalry like this, it’s hard to imagine that Texas will want to show the entire playbook given that Steve Sarkisian’s group has Georgia on deck in what could be the match of the year in the SEC.

With all of that said, it’s hard to imagine how Texas doesn’t score in this game. The concern would be with Oklahoma, as the Sooners offense ranks outside the top 100 in success rate and points per drive. That doesn’t bode well against a Longhorns defense that is this talented up front.

If Texas establishes an early dominant lead — much like it did against Michigan back in Week 2 — then we should see the Longhorns coast to victory and take their foot off the gas just a bit in the second half of this game.

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NCAAF on site.

Texas vs. Oklahoma odds

Oklahoma

+450 ML

Texas

-600 ML

Spread

Texas -14

Total Points

50.5 O/U

Read the latest NCAAF news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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