Texas Bowl: Baylor vs. LSU Picks, Predictions and Odds

One of the more intriguing non-College Football Playoff games on the schedule is the Texas Bowl, which features a matchup between the Baylor Bears and LSU Tigers in a bowl season showdown between the Big 12 and SEC.

Baylor has quietly been one of the more underrated teams in the nation throughout the second half of the season, while LSU ended its season with a couple of solid victories over Vanderbilt and Oklahoma to finish with an 8-4 record.

Both teams will want to end their season on a high note, and there will be plenty of players wanting to prove themselves to their coaches ahead of next season.

Baylor vs. LSU betting picks and predictions

Baylor -4.0 (-115)

In an era of bowl opt-outs and large swaths of the roster hitting the transfer portal, Baylor head coach Dave Aranda has indicated that his best players - including quarterback Sawyer Robertson - will play in this game.

That alone signifies that this program cares about this game far more than the opponent, as LSU will be without both of its starting offensive tackles, multiple starting wide receivers, its starting tight end and four depth pieces in the secondary.

It appears LSU will start three freshmen along the offensive line, which doesn’t bode well against a Baylor defense that is seventh in rushing success rate allowed and 32nd in EPA per play on defense. 

The Tigers already struggled mightily to run the ball when they had a healthy offensive line this season, so the LSU ground game could be a major issue with Brian Kelly’s offense in this game.

If the Tigers find themselves behind the chains often, it’ll be extremely difficult for QB Garrett Nussmeier to bail his team out on third down consistently.

As for the Baylor offense, Robertson (30-7 TD-INT ratio) was playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the nation over the final few months of this season. The Bears offense is a top-20 unit through the air and on third downs, which should translate in this game against a depleted LSU secondary.

It’s also worth wondering if the Tigers’ coaching staff is as focused on this game as they should be, or have they already turned the page to finalizing any moves in the transfer portal and working on next season’s roster.

While LSU has the top end talent that its opponent doesn’t, much of that talent won’t be suiting up for the Tigers in this one. Couple that with a Baylor team that should be motivated to finish its season on a high note, and that gives us a recipe for the Bears to cover the spread.

Over 59.5 Total Points (-110)

While there are avenues for both teams to cover this spread, a high-scoring game fits the strengths of both teams.

The Baylor offense has quietly been a very strong unit on all fronts, sitting at 27th in rushing success rate, 16th in passing success rate, 22nd in third and fourth down success rate and 22nd in points per drive, per College Football Insiders. 

It just so happens that this LSU defense can be attacked, as seen against the likes of Alabama, Florida and Texas A&M, who all exploited a unit that is 83rd in passing success rate allowed and 92nd in Early Downs EPA.

The Tigers are also outside the top 70 in rushing success rate allowed and third and fourth down success rate, so there should be plenty of ways for Baylor to score in this game.

On the other side of the ball, while LSU won’t have its full complement of pieces on offense, Nussmeier is still going to be suiting up at quarterback, which should give LSU a solid chance to score at least 24-27 points against a Baylor defense that is 76th in passing success rate allowed and 67th in third and fourth down success rate allowed.

Lastly, given that this game is also being played indoors and there is no weather to speak of, we can expect plenty of points.

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Football on site.

Baylor vs. LSU odds

Baylor Bears	-190 ML
LSU Tigers	+160 ML
Spread	Baylor -4.0
Total Points	O/U 59.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.