The College Football Playoff quarterfinals heat up as the No. 5 Texas Longhorns face the No. 4 Arizona State Sun Devils in the Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.
Scheduled for January 1, 2025, at 1 PM ET on ESPN, this CFP clash features two teams with very different paths to this stage.
Texas, fresh off a hard-fought 38-24 victory over Clemson, comes in as a heavy -13.5-point favorite (-110).
Meanwhile, Arizona State, the surprise Big 12 champion, earned a first-round bye and will look to pull off a massive upset behind its dominant ground game.
Texas enters this game with momentum after a strong win over Clemson in the first round of the CFP.
While Clemson’s Cade Klubnik managed to put up 336 passing yards and three touchdowns, the Longhorns’ defense did enough to contain the Tigers' overall attack, holding their run game to just 76 yards on 24 carries.
Offensively, Texas leaned heavily on its rushing duo of Jaydon Blue and Quintrevion Wisner, who combined for 256 yards and four touchdowns on the ground to expose Clemson’s weak rush defense.
Against Arizona State, however, Texas will face a much tougher challenge in the trenches.
The Sun Devils rank 22nd nationally in rushing defense, allowing just 3.6 yards per carry. While Clemson couldn’t stop the Longhorn ground game, Arizona State’s front seven has the capability to at least slow it down.
That said, the Longhorns’ overall talent and experience, particularly on defense, should give them the edge. Texas ranks seventh in defensive EPA per rush and second in EPA per dropback, making this the most formidable unit Arizona State has faced all year.
While Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo has been unstoppable in recent weeks, Texas’ defensive line and linebackers have consistently shut down elite rushing attacks, holding SEC opponents to just 3.1 yards per carry this season.
On offense, Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers will need to step up against an Arizona State defense that excels at forcing turnovers in the passing game. Ewers had a quiet but efficient performance against Clemson, going 17/24 for 200 yards and a touchdown.
With top wideout Isiah Bond potentially returning from injury, Ewers could open up the passing game more in this matchup. While Arizona State ranks 23rd in EPA against the pass, their secondary will be tested against Texas’ superior athletes.
Arizona State has been an incredible story this season, going from preseason Big 12 bottom-feeders to conference champions in Kenny Dillingham’s second year as head coach. However, this stage may be too big for this young Sun Devils team.
Sam Leavitt has been efficient (24 TDs to five INTs) and effective at managing games, but Texas’ elite pass rush and experienced secondary will likely create problems for the Sun Devils’ offense. Without their top wideout Jordyn Tyson, who is out with a collarbone injury, Arizona State will struggle to keep pace.
Texas has repeatedly struggled to cover big spreads this season, but the Longhorns’ playoff experience and defensive superiority should prove too much for Arizona State.
Look for Texas to wear down the Sun Devils and pull away in the second half to cover the -13.5 spread.
While Texas’ 38-24 victory against Clemson saw the Over hit, this matchup feels primed to go Under the 52-point total.
Both teams rely heavily on their defenses, and Arizona State’s strategy will be to shorten the game by leaning on Cam Skattebo and the rushing offense, which will keep the clock running.
Skattebo has been a force all year, rushing for 1,568 yards and 19 touchdowns, and he’ll be the centerpiece of the Sun Devils’ offense. However, Texas has allowed only one opponent all season to surpass 150 rushing yards, and their ability to contain Skattebo will likely force Arizona State into long, methodical drives that chew up clock but result in few points.
On the flip side, Texas will also look to establish the run early, especially if Ewers isn’t fully healthy.
While the Longhorns boast one of the most efficient passing games in the country, they rank just 103rd in offensive red-zone efficiency, which could lead to stalled drives and field goals rather than touchdowns. Arizona State’s defense ranks 16th in EPA against the rush and 23rd in EPA against the pass, making it a respectable unit capable of limiting Texas’ scoring opportunities.
Arizona State’s offensive limitations without Jordyn Tyson will also play a significant role in keeping the score low. With Tyson out, the Sun Devils have relied heavily on Skattebo and tight end Chamon Metayer in the passing game, but they lack the explosive playmakers needed to challenge Texas’ top-tier secondary.
Texas ranks third in red zone defense, and Arizona State ranks 114th in offensive red-zone efficiency, meaning the Sun Devils could struggle to convert drives into touchdowns.
Additionally, Texas has shown a tendency to play conservatively in games where they’re heavy favorites. Their ability to control the clock with a dominant ground game and their elite defense suggests a lower-scoring contest.
Arizona State will likely adopt a similar approach, aiming to limit possessions and keep the game within reach for as long as possible.
This game sets up as a grind-it-out affair where both teams rely on the run and play sound defense. Even if Texas covers the spread, the total will likely stay Under 52.0 total points.
Read the latest College Football betting picks and predictions on site.
Texas | -550 ML |
Arizona State | +400 ML |
Spread | Texas -13.5 |
Total Points | O/U 52.0 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.