College Football Playoff: Tennessee vs. Ohio State Picks, Predictions and Odds

The 2024 College Football Playoff continues on Saturday December 21, with an intriguing first-round clash between No. 9 Tennessee and No. 8 Ohio State in Columbus, Ohio.

Both teams enter the postseason with identical 10-2 records and finished in the top four of the sport’s two biggest conferences - SEC and Big Ten.

Ohio State’s season ended in heartbreak with a 13-10 loss to Michigan knocking them out of the Big Ten Championship and raising significant questions about their offensive approach.

Tennessee, meanwhile, has surged down the stretch behind a red-hot Nico Iamaleava and a dominant rushing attack.

As these two defensive juggernauts prepare to square off, expect a physical battle where points come at a premium.

Below, we break down the matchup and offer our best betting picks.

Tennessee vs. Ohio State betting picks and predictions

Tennessee +7.5 (-110)

Despite all the talent in the world, Ohio State has struggled to consistently impose its will and step on throats this season.

The Buckeyes’ wins over Nebraska (21-17), Iowa (35-7, 7-0 at half) and at Penn State (20-13, but failed to score a touchdown in the second half), highlighted their offensive inconsistencies and all gave pause for thought.

Most concerning is the state of the Buckeyes now after putting up just 10 points on a Michigan defense that played without All-American defensive back Will Johnson.

The Buckeyes' offensive line is severely injured, and their inability to create running room for their backfield and protect Will Howard spells trouble against a vaunted Tennessee front seven. 

Howard, while efficient with a 72.3% completion rate, lacks the dynamic playmaking ability of Ohio State quarterbacks of years past, such as Justin Fields or C.J. Stroud. Against Michigan, Howard managed just 175 passing yards on 33 attempts and was largely ineffective using his legs.

The Volunteers, on the other hand, arrive in Columbus with momentum and a clear identity. Iamaleava has been outstanding in Tennessee’s last five games, throwing 11 touchdowns to just 1 interception.

While Tennessee’s passing game lacks elite playmakers at receiver - Dont’e Thornton Jr. leads the team with just 25 catches for 647 yards - the Volunteers’ run game more than compensates.

Dylan Sampson has been unstoppable, rushing for 1,485 yards and 22 touchdowns this season, and he’ll be the focal point of Tennessee’s offense once again.

Ohio State’s defense, ranked 1st in points allowed per game (10.9) and 3rd in EPA per rush, has been its saving grace.

However, the Buckeyes struggled at times to contain Michigan’s physical rushing attack, surrendering 172 rushing yards on 42 carries, and Tennessee presents an even tougher test.

The Volunteers’ offensive line has been solid all season, and Sampson’s ability to find running lanes could put Ohio State on its heels.

Furthermore, Tennessee’s defense has been one of the best units in the nation. Led by future NFL first-round pick James Pearce Jr., who boasts 7.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss, the Volunteers rank 1st in defensive EPA per rush and 4th in defensive EPA per dropback.

With Ohio State’s offensive line banged up, expect Tennessee to consistently pressure Howard, forcing him into quick decisions and limiting explosive plays.

The Volunteers’ superior rushing attack and defensive front give them an edge, which could help wash their road disadvantage and bring this game closer to even. Take Tennessee to cover the +7.5 spread.

Under 47 Total Points (-110)

While both teams feature talent on offense, it’s the defenses that will dictate the outcome in this first-round CFP showdown.

Tennessee and Ohio State both rank among the nation’s best defensively and, with so much at stake, this game is likely to be a low-scoring affair.

Ohio State’s defense has been a brick wall all season, allowing just 241 yards per game. Defensive ends J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer have combined for 11 sacks, while the Buckeyes’ secondary has held opponents to minimal production through the air.

Tennessee’s passing attack, while improved under Iamaleava, remains inconsistent. The Volunteers’ receiving corps has struggled with route-running and dropped passes, making it unlikely they’ll repeatedly exploit Ohio State’s secondary.

On the other side, Tennessee’s defensive line has been equally dominant, tallying 29 sacks and generating plenty of pressure. The Buckeyes’ offensive line woes were on full display against Michigan and Tennessee’s front, anchored by Pearce and Omarr Norman-Lott (4 sacks), will likely control the line of scrimmage.

Ohio State’s offense relies heavily on its star-studded receiving corps, featuring Jeremiah Smith (934 yards, 10 TDs) and Emeka Egbuka (743 yards, 9 TDs). However, if Howard doesn’t have time to get the ball to his playmakers, Ohio State’s offense could struggle to move the chains.

The trends further reinforce the case for the under. Ohio State has hit the under in five of its last six games, whiel Tennessee has cashed the under in four of its last five against top-25 scoring defenses.

Both teams excel at shutting down the run and pressuring opposing quarterbacks, making sustained drives a rarity.

With two elite defensive units and inconsistent offenses, bet on the under 47 total points.

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Football on site.

Tennessee vs. Ohio State odds

Tennessee	+230 ML
Ohio State	-280 ML
Spread	Ohio State -7.5
Total Points	O/U 47

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.