Tennessee vs. Georgia: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The No. 12 Georgia Bulldogs are set for a high-stakes showdown in Week 12, hosting the No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers in a pivotal SEC clash.

Georgia, coming off a tough 28-10 loss to Ole Miss, finds itself fighting to stay in the college football playoff hunt. Tennessee, meanwhile, is on a four-game winning streak, holding a share of the SEC’s top spot and hoping to make a statement with a key road victory.

With both teams’ playoff aspirations on the line, and Georgia entering as a 10.5-point favorite, this matchup at Sanford Stadium promises to bring intense competition and plenty of betting intrigue.

Tennessee vs. Georgia betting picks and predictions

Tennessee +10.5 (-110)

The Bulldogs face an immediate need to bounce back against a formidable Tennessee team fresh off a 33-14 win over Mississippi State.

Tennessee has consistently played well against higher-ranked teams this season, making the +10.5 spread a compelling option.

This line, the largest they’ve faced all season, reflects a conservative market outlook on Tennessee’s offensive potential.

However, with a solid defense that has kept them competitive, even in tough matchups, Tennessee could cover the spread here. They’ve covered five of their nine games this season and won outright as a home underdog against Alabama by seven points.

Georgia’s offense has been inconsistent, especially against top-level SEC defenses. Bulldogs' quarterback Carson Beck struggled last week, completing 20 of 31 passes for just 186 yards, no touchdowns and one interception.

The offense produced only 60 rushing yards, with five sacks and nine tackles for loss, exposing the offensive line’s vulnerability.

Although the Bulldogs’ defense has been exceptional at keeping games close, Beck’s recent struggles, including his nation-leading 12 interceptions, could limit Georgia’s scoring ability and keep this game within reach for the Vols.

A significant edge for Tennessee is their defensive line, which ranks among the top teams in pressure rate.

The Vols will likely use this strength to pressure Beck into quick decisions, an area he has struggled in, especially with his completion rate dropping below 40% under pressure.

Tennessee’s defense also excels in stopping explosive plays, making it difficult for the Bulldogs to gain momentum. Beck’s inconsistency, paired with Tennessee’s defensive pressure, strengthens the case for Tennessee to cover the 10.5-point spread.

Another critical factor for the Vols will be their star running back Dylan Sampson, who has carried Tennessee’s offense all season with 1,129 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns on 201 carries.

With 138+ yards in five of his last six games, Sampson is a reliable workhorse who can control the game tempo, crucial in this road matchup.

Tennessee coach Josh Heupel should be able to scheme some open men downfield, but will likely lean on Sampson to avoid putting too much pressure on freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who has been inconsistent hitting his target, especially in high-pressure situations. 

Under 48.5 Total Points (-110)

With two of the SEC’s best defenses facing off, the under 48.5 total points looks like a promising play in this game.

Georgia has gone under the total in six of their nine games, while Tennessee has hit the under in five of their nine games, including five of their last six.

Both teams have shown tendencies for lower-scoring games this season, especially against stronger defenses and given the strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the ball, a controlled, defensive game script seems probable.

Tennessee’s high-pressure defense is well-positioned to exploit Beck’s weaknesses, likely forcing him into conservative throws or even turnovers.

With Georgia’s recent struggles in establishing a reliable ground game, the Bulldogs may struggle to produce consistent offensive drives, which could further slow the game’s tempo.

On the other side, Tennessee’s offense also faces challenges against Georgia’s elite defense, which ranks top 10 nationally in third-down stops, allowing a conversion rate below 30%.

Georgia’s front seven has effectively shut down opponents’ big plays, controlling game flow and keeping the scores low.

While Tennessee has an explosive running back in Dylan Sampson, he faces a tough test against a Bulldogs defense designed to stifle the run game and force teams into tough passing situations.

With only 11 touchdowns to four interceptions, Iamaleava’s decision-making and accuracy under pressure are not yet at the level needed to succeed consistently against Georgia’s defense.

The Bulldogs will likely focus on stopping Sampson, forcing Iamaleava to step up, a situation that has historically led to lower production for Tennessee’s offense.

Given Iamaleava’s struggles with deep passes and his receiving corps' issues with dropped passes, Tennessee may be unable to generate the explosive plays needed to break open Georgia’s defense.

Adding to the case for the under is both teams' preference for shorter plays and conservative strategies, designed to protect the football and control the clock.

Georgia, for example, will likely deploy screen passes to move the ball incrementally while also avoiding Tennessee’s pass rush. This approach will eat up clock time and force Tennessee’s defense to tackle in space, setting up a lower-scoring, possession-focused game.

Finally, while Georgia’s defensive front is strong, Tennessee’s defensive line, headlined by James Pearce Jr., is equally capable of causing problems.

Pearce and his fellow defenders are particularly good at generating quarterback pressure, and given Beck’s struggles with turnovers when pressured, we could see multiple drive-ending plays in the Bulldogs' backfield.

Both defenses are built to minimize big plays, which may lead to a conservative game that hits the under.

Tennessee’s impressive defensive play, Georgia’s issues with offensive consistency and both teams’ penchant for going under make this play a solid betting angle for the game.

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Tennessee vs. Georgia odds

Tennessee	+325 ML
Georgia	-425 ML
Spread	Georgia -10.5
Total Points	O/U 48.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.