College Football Playoff: SMU vs. Penn State Picks, Predictions and Odds

It’s been a long and eventful College Football season, and now the best time of the year on the calendar has finally arrived.

The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff field was announced on December 8 and one of the most intriguing matchups of the first round of games takes place on Saturday, December 21 when the SMU Mustangs head to State College, Pennsylvania to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions.   

Much like Notre Dame, the Nittany Lions got a pretty favorable draw in the bracket, which has put James Franklin’s team in a good position to make a deep run over the next few weeks.  

However, while most College Football fans and analysts alike have already penciled Penn State into the semifinals, the Nittany Lions have to get past an SMU team that brings plenty to the table on both sides of the ball. 

Let’s get into our expert’s SMU vs Penn State picks, predictions and best bets for this highly anticipated playoff showdown.

SMU vs. Penn State betting picks and predictions

Penn State -8.5 (-110)

Perhaps no team benefited more from the introduction of the 12-team College Football Playoff than Penn State, a team that has consistently finished inside the top 10 of the polls over the last eight seasons, but never was able to qualify for the four-team playoff. 

Now, the Nittany Lions not only get a shot at a National Championship this season, they get to start off their quest for a title at home. This is undoubtedly a chance for James Franklin and this Penn State program to put together a strong showing on a national stage, and our expert believes that the Nittany Lions will take full advantage of that opportunity. 

We just saw SMU claw its way back to nearly steal the ACC title from Clemson in a game that featured wild momentum swings in both halves. The problem for the Mustangs is this game should feature much less chaos and variance, which is typically what underdogs need to pull off an upset on the road in a big game. 

One of Penn State’s great strengths is its ability to stay on schedule on offense. Offensive Coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s unit ranks second nationally in success rate, fifth in Early Downs estimated points added (EPA) and sixth in third down success rate.

Therefore, even though SMU’s defense has actually become the strength of the team, it’s hard to see the Mustangs shutting down a confident Drew Allar and this Nittany Lions offense. 

On the other side of the ball, QB Kevin Jennings and the SMU offense has been very efficient and effective in ACC play, despite getting off to a poor start in the nonconference portion of its schedule. However, this is by far the best defense that the Mustangs will have faced to this point, and the likes of Abdul Carter and the Penn State pass rush should give this offensive line fits, especially because SMU has struggled in pass protection this season.

This is a game that should be close for at least a half, but it’s easy to see things unraveling a bit for SMU on both sides of the ball as the game goes along. Penn State should be prepared to win the war of attrition, so let’s back the Nittany Lions -8.5 (-110) to protect their home field and cover the spread. 

Under 54.0 Total Points (-110)

While there are avenues for both sides to cover the spread in this game, our expert’s best bet is going Under the total on Saturday.

Much like what we’re seeing in South Bend, Indiana and Columbus, Ohio this weekend, the weather in central Pennsylvania is certainly not going to be conducive to a high-scoring affair. As of now, temperatures are expected to be in the mid-20s on Saturday, with wind gusts between 10-15 miles per hour and a chance of some light snow showers as well. 

That forecast indicates that we should be getting gameplans that feature a heavy dose of running on early downs from both sides, particularly from a Penn State team that is likely going to prioritize establishing its dominance at the line of scrimmage. That is an ideal script for this Under getting home, especially if the Nittany Lions end up maintaining a lead into the second half, where they’ll just try to run the ball and grind out a comfortable victory.  

There’s also something to be said for the fact that this is an unfamiliar situation for both teams.

While Penn State has played in big games over the last few seasons, the Nittany Lions weren’t necessarily expected to win those games. On the other hand, SMU certainly wasn’t expected to be here at the start of the season, and there’s no telling how Rhett Lashlee’s team will handle a game of this magnitude.

Quick scoring drives are unlikely to be had on Saturday, so let’s back the Under in what should be a lower-scoring affair than what this total is projecting. 

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Football on site.

SMU vs. Penn State odds

SMU	+260 ML
Penn State	-320 ML
Spread	Penn State -8.5
Total Points	O/U 54.0

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.