SMU vs. Nevada: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The SMU Mustangs, who joined the ACC ahead of this season, get the campaign underway with a Week 0 showdown against the Nevada Wolf Pack.

With college football action starting in less than 48 hours, let’s get into our expert’s odds, betting picks and predictions for Saturday’s SMU vs. Nevada matchup. 

SMU vs. Nevada betting picks and predictions

SMU team total Over 39.5 (-150)

This is a game where we have a clear mismatch between a pair of teams trending in opposite directions this season. SMU has been a hot team in the market all summer long, and the optimism around them is certainly warranted as the Mustangs make the jump to the ACC. 

Head coach Rhett Lashlee’s group was excellent at dominating inferior competition a season ago, as SMU was 4-1 against the spread as 21+ point favorites in 2023. It just so happens that they’ll get another chance to do so in this season opener, and we're bullish on the Mustangs’ chances to find the end zone early and often on Saturday. 

What makes the SMU offense so hard to stop is that it has a very balanced attack. The Mustangs not only have one of the better running back rooms in the ACC, they also have what could be the top wide receiver room in the conference.

Preston Stone returns at quarterback, and while reports have indicated that he won’t play the entire game in what is his first live game action since suffering a broken left fibula last November, Stone should certainly lead multiple touchdown drives during his time on the field. 

Even without Stone playing the entire game, backup quarterback Kevin Jennings has plenty of experience in a starting role after leading SMU to multiple victories last season, including the AAC title game.

Jennings can be expected to march this offense up and down the field against a Nevada defensive unit that was 126th in success rate and outside the top 100 in expected points added on early downs a season ago. 

Things don’t get much better for the Wolf Pack on the other side of the ball, as Nevada checks in at 125th in success rate and 121st in expected points added per play in 2023. Brendon Lewis is back at starting quarterback, as Nebraska transfer Chubba Purdy ended up falling short in his pursuit of the starting job.  

New head coach Jeff Choate enters the program after serving as Texas’ co-defensive coordinator for the last couple of seasons. A defensive coach by nature, Choate will likely be looking to run the ball and chew up some clock in order to prevent the game from getting away from his team in the early going. 

However, if Nevada comes out with a conservative game plan, that will likely play right into the hands of this stout SMU defense which was ninth in early downs EPA and 22nd in rushing success rate in 2023. 

Given the on-paper mismatch we’re seeing here, SMU should get plenty of possessions in this game, particularly in the first half.

There’s also the massive advantage of getting Stone and Jennings to combine for two complete halves of football, which increases the chances of big offensive plays for the Mustangs over the full 60 minutes. 

SMU vs. Nevada odds

SMU	-2800 ML
Nevada	+1300 ML
Spread	SMU -24.5
Total Points	O/U 56.0

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.