The Pop-Tarts Bowl features an exciting clash between two top-20 programs as No. 18 Iowa State takes on No. 15 Miami at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.
Both teams are dealing with the aftermath of just missing out on the College Football Playoff and will be looking to end their seasons on a high note.
Iowa State, led by emerging star quarterback sophomore Rocco Becht, boasts one of the nation’s most explosive passing offenses thanks to dynamic wide receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.
The Cyclones finished as runners-up in the Big 12 Championship and are eager to bounce back after a disappointing loss to Arizona State in the title game.
Meanwhile, Miami features a high-octane offense led by Heisman finalist Cam Ward, who orchestrated the Hurricanes' top-ranked scoring attack.
With two All-American playmakers in Ward and wide receiver Xavier Restrepo, Miami has the firepower to challenge Iowa State’s defense.
Iowa State’s explosive aerial attack clashes with Miami’s shaky defense, while the Hurricanes' potent offense will test the Cyclones’ secondary, so this game promises plenty of fireworks.
While Miami enters as the favorite, Iowa State’s ability to compete in high-pressure games under head coach Matt Campbell makes the Cyclones a tempting pick as underdogs.
Now, let’s dive into the two best bets for this matchup.
Iowa State’s offense is led by Becht, who threw for 3,235 yards and 22 touchdowns this season. His big-play ability is a perfect match with his dynamic receiving duo of Higgins and Noel, both of whom surpassed 1,000 receiving yards.
Higgins, an Associated Press Third-Team All-American, will be extra motivated playing in his hometown of Miami, while Noel was named Big 12 Co-Special Teams Player of the Year for his contributions as a punt returner.
The Cyclones’ passing attack should exploit Miami’s defense, which has struggled all season to prevent explosive plays. The Hurricanes rank outside the top 100 nationally in explosive play rate allowed and they’ve also struggled with tackling, according to Pro Football Focus.
Miami’s late-season loss to Syracuse, in which they surrendered 380 passing yards, highlighted this issue, and Iowa State has the offensive tools to take advantage.
Iowa State’s defense has faced significant injuries, particularly at linebacker, but they remain solid overall, allowing just 21.5 points per game. The unit is disciplined, with the Cyclones averaging a Division I-low 27.8 penalty yards per game.
In bowl games where consistency and preparation are often the deciding factors, this discipline could be crucial against a Miami team prone to defensive lapses.
While Miami’s offense is undeniably potent, the Hurricanes may face motivational challenges. They missed out on the ACC Championship after a crushing 41-38 loss to Syracuse and are playing in what some may view as a consolation game.
Conversely, Iowa State is eager to finish its season on a high note after getting crushed by Arizona State in the Big 12 Championship.
Campbell’s ability to prepare his team for big games is a significant edge over Miami’s Mario Cristobal, whose in-game coaching has often been criticized.
In a game likely decided by effort and execution, Iowa State’s gritty mentality and disciplined playstyle make them the better bet at +3.5.
If you’re looking for points, the Pop-Tarts Bowl should deliver plenty of fireworks.
Miami boasts the nation’s top-ranked offense, averaging 44.2 points and 538.3 yards per game, while Iowa State’s passing attack ranks among the most explosive in the country.
The Total Points line of 55.5 looks low for a matchup featuring two offenses capable of putting up big numbers.
Ward had a spectacular season with 4,123 passing yards, 36 touchdowns and a 67 percent completion rate, and his chemistry with Restrepo - who ranked in the top five nationwide with 1,127 receiving yards - has been key to Miami’s success.
Miami also features a strong ground game led by running backs Damien Martinez and Mark Fletcher, giving the Hurricanes a balanced attack that can stress Iowa State’s injury-depleted defense.
On the other side, Becht has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 17 straight games dating back to last season, and he’s shown the ability to attack downfield against weaker secondaries.
His 59 percent completion rate would be cause for hesitation when coming up against stingier secondaries, but Miami’s inability to prevent big plays or consistently cover or tackle in the open field should lead to plenty of easy completions and scoring opportunities for the Cyclones.
Both defenses have struggled at times this season. Miami’s unit has allowed 23.9 points per game and was particularly vulnerable against the pass, while Iowa State’s defense - although stingy in points allowed - ranks outside the top 100 in expected points added (EPA) per rush.
Miami’s dynamic offense should have little trouble moving the ball both through the air and on the ground.
This game is also expected to be played at a fast pace. Both offenses thrive in high-tempo situations and, with neither defense likely to dominate, the scoring should come early and often.
Iowa State’s explosive passing game, combined with Miami’s balanced offensive firepower, makes the over an excellent option.
Read the latest College Football betting picks and predictions on site.
Iowa State | +145 ML |
Miami | -170 ML |
Spread | Miami -3.5 |
Total Points | O/U 55.5 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.