Penn State vs. USC: Picks, Predictions and Odds

In Week 7, #4 Penn State heads west to face off against USC at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, a high-profile matchup for both teams as they navigate their conference schedules.

Penn State enters the game undefeated at 5-0, while USC has had a more tumultuous season, sitting at 3-2 after a 24-17 loss to Minnesota as 8-point favorites.

Let’s break down the betting picks, predictions and key factors that will influence this marquee game.

Penn State vs. USC betting picks and predictions

Penn State -4.0 (-110)

The Nittany Lions have been dominant on both sides of the ball, but particularly on the defensive line, which will be a significant advantage against a struggling USC front.

Penn State’s defense has been suffocating, allowing just 11.4 points per game, and their front seven is one of the best in the country. They have tallied 13 sacks in five games, with 9.5 coming from their defensive line, led by edge rusher Abdul Carter, who has three sacks on the season.

USC, on the other hand, has had a hard time protecting quarterback Miller Moss. The Trojans have allowed eight sacks in their first five games, and their offensive line has been inconsistent, particularly against elite defenses.

Penn State’s ability to generate pressure without blitzing, combined with Moss’s struggles under duress, gives the Nittany Lions a clear edge in this matchup. Moss has thrown nine touchdowns but also four interceptions this season, and his turnover-worthy throws increase significantly when facing pressure.

Offensively, Penn State has been methodical and efficient. Quarterback Drew Allar has been excellent in managing games, completing 73 of 103 passes for 1,101 yards, nine touchdowns and just one interception. His adjusted completion percentage of 77.6% and a PFF passing grade of 87.2 show how much he’s improved from last season.

With Allar’s calm presence and the ground game led by Nick Singleton (408 rushing yards, 3 TDs) and Kaytron Allen (367 rushing yards, 2 TDs), Penn State ranks fourth in the nation in Success Rate and 15th in Rushing Success Rate.

USC’s defense, despite some improvements under new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, has struggled in key areas, especially against the run. They rank 92nd in Defensive Line Yards and 100th in EPA/Rush Allowed, meaning Penn State’s rushing attack should have little trouble controlling the game.

USC senior linebacker Eric Gentry is also sidelined for the foreseeable future in the middle of that defense, which could open up more for Penn State in the middle of the field. 

The Trojans have also had trouble generating big plays, ranking 125th in offensive explosiveness, which limits their ability to challenge Penn State’s stingy defense. Given these factors, Penn State should cover the 4.0-point spread. Their superior play on the offensive and defensive lines will likely allow them to dictate the pace and flow of the game.

Under 50.5 (-110)

One of the most appealing bets for this matchup is the under on the 50.5-point total. Both teams have shown tendencies to play lower-scoring games, particularly when facing top-tier defenses.

Penn State’s defense, as mentioned, allows just 11.4 points per game, and the Nittany Lions have cashed in on this under in three of their five games this season. Their methodical offensive approach also contributes to lower totals, as they rank 96th in plays per minute, which decreases the number of possessions in their games.

Penn State’s offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has prioritized efficiency over explosiveness. Despite averaging over five yards per carry between Singleton and Allen, the Nittany Lions rank just 123rd in rushing explosiveness, meaning they don’t rely on big plays to move the ball. Instead, they focus on grinding down opponents, which eats up the clock and keeps scores lower.

On the USC side, their offense, while talented, has struggled to produce explosive plays as well. This was evident in USC’s 24-17 loss to Minnesota, where they managed just one pass of 18 yards or more. Against Penn State’s elite defensive front, it’s unlikely that USC will suddenly find big-play magic.

USC’s defense has also improved in terms of limiting points. They’ve allowed an average of 18.4 points per game, and while they’ve been vulnerable against the run, their ability to limit passing explosiveness (ranking third nationally) should prevent Penn State from hitting chunk plays through the air.

With both teams focusing on controlling the line of scrimmage and limiting big plays, the game is set up to be a grind, with fewer points than the 50.5 total suggests.

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NCAAF on site.

Penn State vs. USC odds

Penn State	-180 ML
USC	+150 ML
Spread	Penn State -4
Total Points	O/U 50.5

Read the latest NCAAF news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.