Penn State vs. Oregon: Picks, Predictions and Odds

It’s been an exciting season in the Big Ten and it’s only fitting that its championship game features a stalwart of the conference against a newcomer from the Pacific Northwest, as the Penn State Nittany Lions will take on the Oregon Ducks at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Saturday.

No. 3 Penn State didn’t expect to be in this position, but the Nittany Lions were able to backdoor their way into this game by default after Ohio State’s stunning loss to Michigan a week ago. 

As for No. 1 Oregon, the Ducks went undefeated in the regular season and are looking to become one of the only teams in College Football history to beat Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State in the same season.   

Will Penn State cap off its best season in years with a Big Ten title, or can the Ducks finish off an undefeated 13-0 campaign with a flourish to cap their first season in the conference?

Let’s get into our betting picks and predictions for this matchup. 

Penn State vs. Oregon betting picks and predictions

Oregon -3.5 (-105)

Much has been made of James Franklin’s struggles against elite competition during his tenure at Penn State and that narrative may well continue following Saturday’s game. 

Penn State hasn’t won a game outright as an underdog since September 2021 against Wisconsin, and Franklin is just 1-16 straight up and 5-12 against the spread when facing top-five teams in his career. 

And while this Penn State roster and coaching staff make up the strongest team this program has had in at least five years, this is still the best opponent they will have faced all season, and it comes in a high-pressure spot.

Oregon used its bye week to get healthy after eight straight Big Ten conference games, and a 49-point outburst against Washington at home was just what the doctor ordered a week ago. 

Led by a veteran leader at quarterback in Dillon Gabriel, the Ducks’ offense continues to be one of the best units in the nation. Oregon is averaging over seven yards per play in the Big Ten and sitting inside the top five in estimated points added (EPA) per rush, EPA per pass and success rate this season. 

After missing a couple of weeks with an injury, the return of top wide receiver Tez Johnson is massive for this Oregon offense, as the Ducks averaged over three points per drive with Johnson in the lineup over the first nine games this season. 

Without Johnson on the field against Maryland and Wisconsin, the Ducks offense only averaged 2.09 points per drive, with an explosive pass plate rate of just 9.2 percent (compared to 19.2 percent with Johnson in the lineup). 

On the Penn State side of things, offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s unit ranks inside the top 10 nationally in success rate, EPA per play, Early Downs EPA and third down success rate. However, we saw the Nittany Lions struggle mightily against Ohio State’s defense earlier this season, and this Oregon defense ranks inside the top five in EPA per dropback and passing success rate allowed, so this game will be a stern test for QB Drew Allar and the much-maligned Penn State receiving corps. 

Ultimately, Oregon has the better offense and we trust the Ducks’ defense to get off the field when it matters most. After all, this is a unit that beat Ohio State back in October, and they’ll step up once again on the big stage to claim the Big Ten Championship in Oregon’s inaugural season in the conference.

Under 50.5 Total Points (-110)

While the Over hitting would traditionally go hand-in-hand with an Oregon cover in this spot, this game is likely to see a bit less scoring than what would usually be expected. 

As previously mentioned, the Oregon defense is actually the strongest unit on the field for both teams, particularly on the defensive line. 

Dan Lanning’s defense is ranked eighth in the nation in pressure to blitz rate, which should help the Ducks consistently devote more attention to slowing down Penn State tight end Tyler Warren, while the likes of Matayo Uiagalelei, Derrick Harmon and Jordan Burch get after the passer effectively. 

Penn State’s offense had major issues in the red zone against Ohio State, and the Ducks are also 10th in net points per drive on defense, so we can expect a couple of drives from the Nittany Lions to stall around the red zone in this one. 

The Ducks have also experienced red zone issues against the best competition this season and Penn State’s top-10 defense certainly fits that bill, so we could see plenty of points left on the board on Saturday.

There is a real possibility for Oregon to win and cover the short number in this game while still going Under the total of 50.5 points, and that is the only way we can look in this matchup.

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Football on site.

Penn State vs. Oregon odds

Penn State	+150 ML
Oregon	-180 ML
Spread	ORE -3.5
Total Points	50.5 O/U

Read Penn State vs. Oregon: How to watch, start time and stats on site.

Read the latest College Football news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.