College Football Playoff: Penn State vs. Notre Dame Picks, Predictions and Odds

The College Football Playoff semifinal action kicks off on Thursday with a game between two College Football blue-blood programs, as the Penn State Nittany Lions will take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at the Orange Bowl in Miami, Florida.

Both teams have had to win two games to get to this point, but they have each looked sharp so far and are legitimate contenders to win the National Championship. 

Notre Dame beat Indiana 27-17 in the first round and most recently beat Georgia 23-10 in the quarterfinals. Penn State blew out SMU 38-10 in the first round before beating Boise State 31-14 in the quarters.

Penn State vs. Notre Dame betting picks and predictions

Penn State Moneyline (+110)

There is so much to like about this matchup on both sides of the ball, but our expert is looking to back the underdog in this meeting between two traditional power programs. 

Notre Dame was a team that we were comfortable backing against Georgia, and the Fighting Irish controlled the majority of that game in the trenches on both sides of the ball, proving that their strong statistical profile this season was not just a product of their relatively soft schedule. 

With that said, Marcus Freeman’s team is operating at a bit of a disadvantage heading into this week’s matchup, as they have two fewer days of rest than their opponent, which does matter more than usual after playing back-to-back CFP games. 

Additionally, the injury situation for Notre Dame is a real concern, as the Irish have already played games in the Playoff without pivotal lineman on both sides of the ball. And, RB Jeremiyah Love didn’t appear to be healthy at all during the Georgia game. 

Given that the ground game is the engine for this entire offense, that injury doesn’t bode well against a Penn State defense that is already fourth in EPA per rush and seventh in points per drive allowed. The Nittany Lions are also excellent against the pass, ranking inside the top 15 in both success rate and opponent EPA per pass.

There aren’t many avenues for Riley Leonard to attack the Penn State defense, and the Nittany Lions are excellent at staying ahead of the chains on offense thanks to their elite ground game with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen in the backfield. 

The Notre Dame defense is no slouch, but they can be had on the ground (53rd in rushing success rate allowed), so we’d expect Andy Kotelnicki’s team to emphasize a run-first game plan and take it to a depleted Irish front seven.  

This is a game that should be close throughout. With that in mind, let’s grab the plus-money on the Nittany Lions moneyline (+110) to knock off the Irish and advance to the title game.

Under 45.0 Total Points (-110)

Our best bet for this matchup is Under 45.0 total points (-110).

Both offenses have been run-heavy in the CFP to this point, and we should be getting gameplans that feature a heavy dose of running on early downs from each team. These coaching staffs will likely prioritize taking care of the ball and winning the field position battle.

That style of game is an ideal script for the Under because it means that both sides should chew up plenty of clock, while also not giving the opposing defense a chance to force a turnover and set up their offense with a short field.  

There’s also something to be said for the fact that both teams could certainly start out slow in a game of this magnitude.

After all, we just saw Notre Dame stick with a fairly conservative game plan against Georgia, and Penn State’s offense got a bit too cute when it got away from the running game against Boise State. This should lead to an emphasis on the “ground and pound” from both sides on Thursday. 

Don’t expect many scoring drives to end in touchdowns from either side in this game, so let’s back the Under in what should end up being the lower-scoring affair of the two playoff games this week.

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Football on site.

Penn State vs. Notre Dame odds

Penn State	+110 ML
Notre Dame	-130 ML
Spread	Notre Dame -2.0
Total Points	O/U 45.0

Read Penn State vs. Notre Dame: How to watch College Football Playoff semifinal, TV channel, streaming, start time & stats on site.

Read the latest College Football news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.