The College Football Playoff quarterfinals begin on New Year's Eve, with #6 Penn State taking on #3 Boise State at the Fiesta Bowl.
Penn State enters as an 11-point favorite after dismantling SMU in the first round, 38-10, thanks to a smothering defense and two pick-sixes. Meanwhile, Boise State earned a first-round bye and comes in with a 12-1 record as Mountain West champions, their lone loss being a narrow 37-34 defeat to #1 Oregon earlier in the season.
Penn State's physical defense and balanced attack battle Boise State's ground-heavy offense led by Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty. Let's break down the spread, total and how these teams stack up in what promises to be an exciting CFP showdown.
Boise State might be a double-digit underdog, but there's plenty of evidence to suggest they can keep this game close. The Broncos rely on one of the best rushing attacks in the nation, led by running back Ashton Jeanty, who has been nothing short of spectacular this season. Jeanty has rushed for 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns on 344 carries, dominating defenses with his blend of power, agility and endurance.
Jeanty's most impressive performance came in Boise State's near-upset against top-ranked Oregon earlier this year when he racked up 192 yards and three touchdowns. He'll face an equally stout challenge against Penn State's defense, which ranks sixth in the nation in EPA against the run. The Nittany Lions' front seven, led by All-American defensive end Abdul Carter, has held opposing rushers in check all year, allowing just one player to surpass 100 yards on the ground.
However, Boise State's offense isn't one-dimensional. While Jeanty is the focal point, quarterback Maddux Madsen has been a steady hand, throwing for 2,714 yards, 22 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Though not as dynamic as Penn State QB Drew Allar, Madsen's ability to protect the football will be critical in limiting Penn State's opportunities to capitalize on turnovers.
Defensively, Boise State has the tools to disrupt Penn State's offensive rhythm. The Broncos rank second nationally in sacks per game (3.8), with star pass-rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan leading the charge with 10 sacks on the season. This relentless pressure could force Penn State into uncomfortable situations, especially if they're unable to establish their running game early.
Boise has also proven they can compete against top-tier opponents. Their only loss this season came by three points to the top team in the nation, Oregon, and they've consistently performed well as underdogs. With a 7-5-1 record against the spread (ATS) this year, the Broncos have shown resilience in big moments, and their disciplined play gives them a legitimate shot to cover the +11 spread.
While both teams feature explosive offensive weapons, this matchup sets up as a lower-scoring affair, thanks to two elite defenses.
Penn State's defense is one of the best in the country, allowing just 15.9 points per game. Their strength lies in their ability to limit explosive plays, particularly in the running game. While Jeanty's production has been remarkable, Penn State's front seven excels at shutting down even the most dynamic rushing attacks. Against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship, the Nittany Lions allowed just 4.5 yards per carry on 41 attempts, showing their ability to contain a high-powered ground game.
Boise State's defense has been just as impressive down the stretch. Over their last three games, the Broncos have allowed an average of 12.6 points per game, with all three contests going under the total. Their pass rush, anchored by Virgin-Morgan, could disrupt Allar's rhythm and force Penn State to rely heavily on its rushing attack. Penn State's running backs, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, have been productive this season, and Boise's 36th in EPA against the rush indicates Penn State will look to force the issue and win on the ground.
Both teams also prefer to control the clock, which could lead to fewer possessions and a slower pace. With both teams leaning on their ground games, expect the first half to be a grind, with limited scoring opportunities.
While tight end Tyler Warren has been a reliable target, with 92 catches for 1,095 yards and six touchdowns, Penn State's wide receivers lack the playmaking ability to consistently stretch the field. While Boise's secondary is nothing to write home about, their pass rush can help keep Penn State's outside threats at bay, further limiting the Nittany Lions' ability to put up points in a hurry.
The under is further supported by the postseason setting. In high-stakes playoff games, teams often play conservatively, prioritizing field position and avoiding costly mistakes. With both defenses excelling at pressuring the quarterback, turnovers could also be a factor, but those are more likely to stall drives than lead to quick scores.
We project a final score of 27-20 in favor of Penn State, keeping the game under the 52-point total.
Penn State | -425 ML |
Boise State | +325 ML |
Spread | Penn State -11 |
Total Points | O/U 52 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.