One of the showcase games in the Big Ten this week features a marquee matchup in Ann Arbor, as the top-ranked Oregon Ducks take on the defending National Champion Michigan Wolverines on Saturday.
Michigan is one of the traditional powers in the sport, but a matchup against Oregon is pretty unusual for these new Big Ten foes, as these programs will be meeting this weekend for the first time since 2007 thanks to the Ducks joining the conference before this season.
This is a game that looked a lot bigger on paper prior to the season, but these teams are trending in completely different directions at the moment. Will Oregon keep on rolling, or can the Wolverines make this Big Ten clash closer than anticipated?
While this will be a difficult game in terms of travel for Oregon, it’s hard to see one of the most complete teams in the nation at the moment allowing the underdogs to cover in this spot, especially given the big-name brand of the opponent.
Michigan’s offense has been a consistent issue, and the Wolverines still struggled mightily on offense last week, even in a winning effort over Michigan State. The passing offense in particular has been a disaster all season long, as Michigan is outside the top 100 in early downs estimated points added (EPA) and net points per drive, while ranked only 88th in passing success rate.
And even on defense, which is the clear strength of this team, Michigan is still just 81st in third-down success rate and 115th in quality possessions allowed.
None of those numbers inspire confidence that the Wolverines will be able to generate stops with any sort of consistency in this matchup, and that doesn’t bode well against an Oregon offense that is one of the best units in the nation, averaging over seven yards per play in the Big Ten and sitting inside the top 10 in EPA margin and success rate.
After a fairly slow start to the season, Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel has been playing some of his best football of the campaign in recent weeks. In the backfield, the duo of Jordan James and Noah Whittington are running extremely well behind an offensive line that is clicking on all cylinders.
Lastly, the dynamic wide receiver duo of Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart have generated consistent explosiveness downfield, which was largely absent from the Ducks passing game earlier in the season.
Oregon wasn’t focusing on winning by margin record earlier this season, so its against-the-spread record is a bit misleading as a result. In fact, it would realistically look a lot better (could be 6-2 ATS instead of its current 4-4 ATS) if the Ducks didn’t take their foot off the gas in the second halves against UCLA and Michigan State, which allowed those teams to cover the number with garbage time scoring drives.
Given the magnitude of this game and the opportunity for Oregon to make a statement against one of the biggest brands in the sport, look for the Ducks to come out hot and keep their foot on the gas en route to a win and cover -14.5 at -110.
While a gameplan targeting the Under would traditionally go hand-in-hand with a Michigan cover in this spot, it’s just hard to see how the Wolverines score in this one.
Sherrone Moore’s team is built to play keep away on offense, but Oregon should simply follow the blueprint that other teams have laid out this season by stacking the box to take away the run and force this anemic passing offense to beat them.
Michigan is already going to play very slowly, which shouldn’t be an issue for this group. After all, the Wolverines are one of the slowest teams in the nation in terms of seconds per play on the year.
Given that they shouldn’t generate many possessions in this game, it’s hard to see Michigan scoring more than 14 points on Saturday.
On the other side, Oregon has shown that it is more than happy to run the ball and march methodically down the field. The Ducks should come out with a terrific script in the first half, ready to take advantage of the Will Johnson injury in the Wolverines secondary and generate some explosive plays through the air.
However, we can expect a heavy dose of the ground game in the second half, as the Ducks look to ice the game and preserve their unbeaten record.
There is a real possibility for Oregon to win by margin while still going Under the total of 44.5.
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Oregon | -700 ML |
Michigan | +500 ML |
Spread | Oregon -14.5 |
Total Points | O/U 44.5 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.