Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State: Picks, Predictions and Odds

Saturday afternoon brings us a fascinating Big 12 matchup between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Kansas State Wildcats in Manhattan, Kansas.

Both of these teams are coming off disappointing losses and now the chance to win the Big 12 and qualify for the College Football Playoff might hinge on this game in late September.

With both teams looking to make a statement in a game that could eliminate one of these teams from Big 12 title contention, let’s get into our betting picks, predictions and best bets for Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State on Saturday.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State betting picks and predictions

Kansas State -4.5 (-110)

Both of these teams lost their conference openers a week ago in head-scratching fashion, as Oklahoma State was outgained by nearly 200 yards against a Utah team that was without its starting quarterback, while Kansas State outgained BYU by over 100 yards but committed three turnovers and surrendered a special teams touchdown in a loss in Provo, Utah.

Wildcats quarterback Avery Johnson completed just 15 of his 28 passes for 130 yards, zero touchdowns and a pair of interceptions, and a usually buttoned-up and well-coached Wildcats team was penalized eight times compared to BYU’s two penalties.

Don’t expect that poor performance to carry over into this week, especially against a team that Kansas State’s offense can certainly see success against on the ground. 

Even in that aforementioned blowout loss to BYU, the Wildcats ran the ball 14 more times than they threw it, accumulating nearly 230 yards total on the ground with an average of 5.3 yards per carry and eight explosive runs.

That type of production on the ground should be advantageous against Oklahoma State’s defense, especially if the Wildcats are able to grab an early lead and get the crowd into the game at home. 

This Oklahoma State defense has been problematic, as the Cowboys have yielded 180 rushing yards per game coming into this contest, and are outside the top 70 in stuff rate and line yards.

Mike Gundy’s team also struggles to contain big plays on the ground, as they are outside the top 100 nationally in opposing rush explosiveness and explosive runs allowed this season. All of this is a major issue when facing this Kansas State dynamic rushing attack.

The real problem for Oklahoma State has been on offense, as Ollie Gordon and this rushing attack has struggled mightily thus far. This season, Gordon carries the ball at a top 10 rate, yet averages just 3.3 yards per carry and is 70th nationally in total rushing yards among all qualified running backs. 

The offense line has been a major issue, which has forced the Cowboys into leaning into the passing game. That hasn’t been beneficial for quarterback Alan Bowman and this offense, and it certainly wasn’t a week ago against Utah. Against a Kansas State defense that is stout against the run, it’s hard to trust Oklahoma State’s offense given its inefficiencies on the ground to this point. 

All things considered, let’s take Kansas State -4.5 (-110) with our prediction for this Big 12 matchup.   

Under 55.5 total points (-110)

Given that we like Kansas State to win and cover, that correlates nicely with the Under on Saturday.

The Wildcats are going to emphasize the ground game and controlling the clock, which should be a recipe for a shorter game and fewer possessions for both sides.

And while Oklahoma State does play a bit faster in terms of seconds per play, its rushing attack has been unreliable of late. Therefore, it’s hard to be confident in the Cowboys’ ability to sustain drives with an unreliable ground game in a hostile environment. 

With both teams also coming off losses heading into this game, we can expect both coaches to play somewhat cautiously given the turnover issues that each offense has faced in recent weeks. 

In what could be an elimination game, both sides should air on the side of caution and that should get us to Under 55.5 total points (-110) on Saturday.

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Football on site.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State odds

Oklahoma State	+175 ML
Kansas State	-210 ML
Spread	Kansas State -4.5
Total Points	O/U 55.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.