College Football Playoff: Ohio State vs. Texas Picks, Predictions and Odds

The College Football Playoff semifinals bring us a blockbuster matchup between the No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes and No. 5 Texas Longhorns in the Cotton Bowl.

Set for Friday, January 10, at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN, this clash pits Ohio State’s explosive offense against Texas’ stout defense.

With a berth in the national championship on the line, let’s dive into the game preview, analysis and betting picks.

Ohio State vs. Texas betting picks and predictions

Ohio State -6 (-110)

Ohio State enters this game riding high after two dominant playoff performances. The Buckeyes dismantled Tennessee (42-17) and Oregon (41-21), showcasing their dominance on offense and ferocity and tenacity on defense.

Will Howard has been nothing short of spectacular in the playoffs, completing 41 of 55 passes for 630 yards, five touchdowns and only one interception. Freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith has also stepped up on the biggest stage, tallying 290 receiving yards and four touchdowns in two playoff games.

Ohio State’s formula for success has shifted since their regular-season finale loss to Michigan. Instead of relying heavily on their running backs, the Buckeyes have leaned on their elite receiving corps, featuring Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate – three future NFL stars.

This approach has opened up the field, allowing Howard to exploit mismatches and build early leads. Once ahead, Ohio State’s talented backfield, led by TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, has been able to control the clock and wear down opposing defenses.

Defensively, the Buckeyes have stepped up in a big way. Against Oregon, their defensive line was dominant, recording eight sacks and holding the Ducks to an astounding -23 rushing yards. This relentless pressure has been a hallmark of their playoff run and will be critical against a Texas offense designed by arguably the sport’s best schemer in head coach Steve Sarkisian.

The biggest question for Ohio State will be whether they can throw the first punch through the air and continue their dominance against a Texas defense that can absolutely stifle the run. The Buckeyes’ ability to stretch the field and create mismatches against Texas’ defensive backs, particularly with Smith, should allow them to establish control, but the Longhorns’ defense could keep this game closer than expected.

Ohio State’s form, coupled with their explosive offensive potential, makes them a strong pick to cover the -6 spread. While Texas has proven to be a tough outfit, their inability to play four complete quarters against Clemson and Arizona State is concerning.

Look for the Buckeyes to capitalize on Texas’ defensive lapses and secure a 10-14 point victory.

Under 53.5 (-110)

While Ohio State has been lighting up the scoreboard in the playoff, this game has the makings of a lower-scoring affair. Texas’ defense has been a strength all season, ranking in the top 15 nationally against the run. The Longhorns have shown the ability to limit opposing offenses, holding Clemson to 24 points and stifling Arizona State for most of their quarterfinal matchup, until things got weird late.

Texas’ defensive line is among the best in the country, capable of disrupting the run game and pressuring quarterbacks into mistakes. Slowing down Ohio State’s star-studded backfield of Henderson and Judkins will be a top priority.

In three losses this season (to Michigan, Oregon, and Nebraska), the Buckeyes struggled to establish their ground game, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry. Texas has the personnel to replicate that success and force Ohio State to be one dimensional.

Offensively, the Longhorns have been less consistent. Junior quarterback Quinn Ewers has shown flashes of brilliance, throwing for over 3,100 yards and 29 touchdowns this season. However, his performances have been uneven, and injuries have hindered his mobility.

In their CFP quarterfinal win over Arizona State, Ewers delivered clutch plays, including a game-saving touchdown pass in overtime, but some of those big plays did not look particularly pretty out of Ewers’ hand. The Longhorns’ inability to sustain drives was evident, as they managed just 53 rushing yards in regulation.

Sophomore running back Quintrevion Wisner leads the Texas rushing attack with 1,018 yards on the season. While he has had standout performances, including 110 yards and two touchdowns against Clemson, the Buckeyes’ defensive line will present a much tougher challenge.

Ohio State has held their playoff opponents to a combined 2.4 yards per carry, and the Longhorns’ offensive line will have its hands full trying to create running lanes.

Both defenses are well-equipped to limit big plays, and Texas’ ability to adjust in-game could keep Ohio State’s offense in check. While the Buckeyes have scored 40+ points in each playoff game, this matchup against a disciplined Longhorns defense should be more subdued.

The game projects to finish in the 28-17 or 31-20 range, staying under the 53.5 total points line.

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Football on site.

Ohio State vs. Texas odds

Ohio State	-240 ML
Texas	+195 ML
Spread	Ohio State -6.0
Total Points	O/U 53.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.