A heavyweight Big Ten clash awaits in Week 10 as No. 4 Ohio State (6-1) heads to Beaver Stadium to take on undefeated No. 3 Penn State (7-0).
The stakes couldn’t be higher, with Big Ten and College Football Playoff implications on the line.
The Buckeyes and Nittany Lions are both dealing with key injuries and have each shown strengths and vulnerabilities this season, setting the stage for a potentially tight and defensive showdown.
Ohio State enters as a -3.5 favorite despite a rocky 21-17 win over Nebraska last week, where they fell short of covering a 25.5-point spread.
This Ohio State team, though undeniably talented, has struggled with consistency, especially on offense due to key injuries. Left tackle Josh Simmons’ absence has been felt, as it has impacted Ohio State’s ability to run effectively and protect quarterback Will Howard.
Against Penn State’s ferocious pass rush, featuring standout edge rusher Abdul Carter, Howard and the offensive line will need to be in top form.
Ohio State’s elite defense, led by a strong secondary and linebacker corps, has been a standout strength, especially against explosive plays. Despite Denzel Burke’s tough outing against Oregon, Ohio State should be able to handle a Penn State offense that remains almost completely dependent on stud tight end Tyler Warren and the running back tandem of Kaytron Allen and Nicolas Singleton.
Penn State will need a wide receiver to make a name for himself if they expect to reverse their recent history against the Buckeyes.
The status of Penn State’s starting QB Drew Allar, who left mid-game against Wisconsin, also factors in; backup Beau Pribula played admirably but will be facing one of the country’s top defenses in Ohio State.
While Penn State’s top-notch run defense should continue to enjoy success with Ohio State’s offensive line injuries, backing Ohio State at -3.5 feels like a solid play due to their experience in high-stakes matchups and playmakers on the outside capable of capitalizing on Penn State’s weaker secondary if Howard can get the ball to top targets Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith down field.
While Ohio State has been tentative using Howard’s legs this season, he was a prolific running QB at Kansas State, and with recent struggles running the ball out of the backfield, getting Howard’s legs going in this game to keep Penn State honest will be key.
With Howard motivated against his home-state team and having to prove himself in the big moments, expect Ohio State to edge out a close, hard-fought win.
With two of the best defenses in the nation clashing, the Under at 45.5 total points looks appealing in this high-stakes Big Ten matchup.
Ohio State’s defense ranks in the top 20 against explosive plays and can contain Penn State’s offense, which has struggled to get its receivers going consistently. Ohio State’s secondary will focus on stopping Warren, likely putting him in double coverage more often than not, particularly if QB Drew Allar is out or limited due to injury.
Offensively, both teams face challenges. Ohio State’s offense has looked inconsistent, particularly last week when they narrowly beat Nebraska without covering the spread.
Injuries on the Buckeyes’ offensive line, including Simmons, have impacted their ability to establish the run. Penn State boasts one of the country’s top run defenses, which could further stymie Ohio State’s rushing duo of Quinshon Judkins and Treyveon Henderson, who have averaged just 2.2 yards per carry since Simmons' injury.
With both teams’ defenses primed to keep scoring low and Ohio State’s offensive line needing to protect QB Will Howard from a relentless pass rush, a defensive grind is expected, and Under 45.5 points presents strong value in this pivotal matchup.
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Ohio State | -180 ML |
Penn State | +150 ML |
Spread | Ohio State -3.5 |
Total Points | O/U 45.5 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.