College Football Playoff: Ohio State vs. Oregon Picks, Predictions and Odds

The quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff brings fans a rematch of a regular season clash between Big Ten teams as the top-ranked, conference champion Oregon Ducks face the No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes.

The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff got off to a pretty middling start with a myriad of blowouts in the first round of games.

However, the competition is set to heat up in the quarterfinal round and one of the best matchups of the entire season takes place on Wednesday, January 1, when the Buckeyes take on the Ducks in a rematch of the 32-31 classic these teams played back on October 12.

Despite being the top seed in this tournament, Oregon was not given a favorable draw based on how the seeding shook out.

Therefore, the Ducks are actually underdogs in this contest, which is obviously a rarity for the higher-seeded team in a College Football Playoff game.

This game has all the makings of a thriller on paper and it could come down to which team scores last, much like the first meeting between these excellent teams.

Let’s get into our expert’s Ohio State vs Oregon picks, predictions and best bets for this highly anticipated playoff showdown on New Year’s Day.

Ohio State vs. Oregon betting picks and predictions

Oregon to win (+115)

There is so much to like about this matchup, but our expert is looking to back the underdog for the second straight time in a meeting between these two juggernauts.

Ohio State undoubtedly looked fantastic on both sides of the ball in last week’s demolition of Tennessee. However, the Buckeyes have been dominant all season long when playing ahead with a positive gameplan; this is nothing new.

It’s important to acknowledge that this is still an Ohio State team that has multiple key injuries on the offensive line, has clear vulnerabilities when it comes to the defensive secondary, and has a head coach who is still hard to trust in the biggest moments.

The same can’t be said for Oregon on the other side.

Led by a veteran at quarterback in Dillon Gabriel, the Ducks’ offense continues to be one of the best units in the nation.

Oregon just averaged over seven yards per play in the Big 10 and ranks inside the top five in EPA per rush, EPA per pass and success rate this season (per College Football Insiders).

Additionally, the return of top wide receiver Tez Johnson from injury was clearly massive for this Oregon offense, as the Ducks targeted him early and often with great success against Penn State in the Big Ten title game.

Oregon averaged over three points per drive with Johnson in the lineup during the regular season and he was invaluable in the win over Ohio State back in October - racking up seven catches for 75 yards and a touchdown in the victory.

On the other side, while you have to respect the talent of this Buckeyes team at all levels, there is something to be said for Ohio State having to put some of its best offense of the season on tape a week ago.

We have little doubt that Dan Lanning and this Oregon staff will be extremely prepared for this game and a few clever wrinkles in the Ducks' game plan can be expected in a match of this magnitude.

This is a game that should come down to the final moments, so let’s grab the plus-money with the Ducks on the Moneyline at +115 to knock off the Buckeyes for a second time this season and advance to the semifinal round.

Over 55.0 Total Points (-110)

While there are avenues for both sides to cover the spread in this game, our best bet for this matchup is backing Over 55.0 Total Points (-110) on New Year’s Day.

In the first meeting between these teams, our expert backed the Under at a similar number and that was the absolute wrong side from the opening quarter. This time, we won’t make that same mistake and any line below 56 is worth playing here. 

As mentioned previously, Oregon’s offense is absolutely elite with Johnson in the lineup.

In fact, the Ducks' explosive play rate on offense is nearly 20 percent with Johnson active, and the attention he draws should not only help out Evan Stewart - who had his best game of the season in the first meeting against Ohio State - but it should also free up the likes of Traeshon Holden and Kenyon Sadiq in the slot. 

On the other side, the Buckeyes defense is elite at all levels from a metrics perspective, but it’s only faced an offense of this caliber once all season long, and we saw how that went.

With that said, the Ohio State offense (ranked fourth in EPA per play, sixth in points per drive) should do more than enough to compensate for the mistakes its defense could make.

Quick scoring drives could be plentiful on Wednesday, so let’s back the Over in what could end up being a back-and-forth contest which would create perfect conditions for lots of points.

Read the latest College Football betting picks and predictions on site.

Ohio State vs. Oregon odds

Ohio State	-135 ML
Oregon	+115 ML
Spread	Ohio State -2.5
Total Points	O/U 55.0

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.