Ohio State heads to Bloomington on Saturday for one of the biggest games of Week 7, with the Buckeyes facing an undefeated Indiana team that is still dangerous even if it has not been quite as dominant down to down as last year's national championship group.
Indiana remains explosive, especially on the ground, and Josh Hoover has protected the football far better than he did at TCU.
However, Ohio State enters with the better overall roster, more continuity and a much more meaningful revenge angle after losing 13-10 to the Hoosiers in last year's Big Ten Championship Game.
I expect a close game, but I trust the Buckeyes to make enough plays late.
Ohio State vs. Indiana betting picks and predictions
Ohio State -3.5 (-108)
Indiana is still very good. I just do not think it is the same machine it was with Fernando Mendoza.
The Hoosiers rank fifth nationally in explosive play rate, including second in rushing explosiveness, but they have been less consistent drive to drive.
That showed up against Nebraska, when Indiana went just 1-for-10 on third down and needed 75-yard and a 44-yard catch-and-run touchdowns to Nick Marsh immediately after falling behind 17-6 in the fourth quarter.
If Ohio State can prevent the home run plays and force Indiana to string together 10- or 12-play drives, the Buckeyes have the upper hand.
Indiana has faced only 64 third downs this season, one of the lower totals nationally, and about half have been third-and-long. The Hoosiers have generally avoided difficult situations by hitting explosives or gaining first downs early.
Ohio State's defense is not the elite unit it was a year ago, but it still ranks 20th in explosive play rate allowed.
The Buckeyes have struggled more against the run, ranking 60th in rushing success rate allowed and 32nd in rushing explosiveness allowed, so Turbo Richard is a legitimate concern.
Still, this is the most talented front Indiana has faced, and the bigger matchup comes when Ohio State has the ball.
Julian Sayin was sacked five times in last year’s Big Ten title game, and Indiana's front wrecked the game. He was a redshirt freshman then. He is a second-year starter now, and the excuses are gone.
Sayin needs to be decisive, and Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith needs to give him easy outlets when Indiana brings heat.
Jeremiah Smith will get his. He caught eight passes for 144 yards in last year's title game, but nobody else helped him.
That is why Brandon Inniss and Devin McCuin matter so much Saturday.
Indiana's secondary has taken a step back without D'Angelo Ponds, and if Sayin can distribute the ball instead of forcing everything to Smith, Ohio State should create enough offense to cover.
Over 51 total points (-108)
Indiana has plenty of offensive firepower, as Charlie Becker has 30 catches for 529 yards and eight touchdowns, while Marsh has 29 receptions for 528 yards and six scores. They are the only receiving duo in the country with more than 500 yards apiece so far.
Hoover is also taking more shots downfield than Mendoza did last season.
He is not always as clean with his reads, but he has dramatically cut down the turnovers that plagued him at TCU. Through five games, he has zero interceptions and only one fumble.
Ohio State has not generated much pressure, ranking 96th in pressure rate and 109th in sack rate, and that gives Hoover a chance to attack a secondary still replacing Caleb Downs and other key pieces.
On the other side, Indiana's defense has improved up front, but the back end is more vulnerable than it was a year ago.
Ohio State's offensive line held up well against Texas' dominant defensive front despite the loss, and the Buckeyes should have opportunities to create yards after the catch if Sayin gets the ball out quickly.
The biggest reason I like the Over is that I do not expect either team to completely shut down the opposing offensive strength.
Indiana should hit some explosive runs, while Ohio State's passing game is too talented to keep at bay.
I see both teams getting into the 20s, with Ohio State having the better chance of reaching 30.
Turbo Richard anytime touchdown (-125)
Richard was bottled up against Nebraska, carrying eight times for only 10 yards, but that performance looks like the exception.
He still has 597 rushing yards on 71 carries this season, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt, which ranks sixth nationally, and has five touchdowns, and his three most recent scores came from 14, 14 and 25 yards.
Richard is a home-run hitter who has produced a run of at least 20 yards in five of six games, with a season long of 57 yards, and Ohio State has been vulnerable to explosive rushing plays.
The Buckeyes may create plenty of negative plays with their superior size and athleticism up front, but they have also shown they can give up chunk gains when a runner gets through the first level.
Indiana's offensive line has been good enough inside, even if the run blocking at tight end has slipped from last season.
At home, I expect the Hoosiers to make Richard a major part of the game plan and try to keep pressure off Hoover.
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Ohio State vs. Indiana odds
Ohio State | -169 |
Indiana | +144 |
Spread | Ohio State -3.5 |
Total Points | O/U 50.5 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
