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Notre Dame vs. Navy: Picks, Predictions and Odds

No. 12 Notre Dame faces off against undefeated No. 24 Navy at MetLife Stadium this Saturday at MetLife Stadium.

This matchup kicks off at noon ET on ABC/ESPN+.

Both teams are having stellar seasons, but with Notre Dame homing in on a College Football Playoff slot and Navy continuing to overachieve in the American Athletic Conference, this clash is full of intrigue.

Notre Dame is favored by 13.5 points, but Navy’s dominant ground game has them in the national rankings, making this a potential upset in the making.

Here’s a breakdown of the best picks and predictions for the game.

Notre Dame vs. Navy betting picks and predictions

Notre Dame -13.5 (-110)

Notre Dame enters this contest on a tear, winning five straight games and dominating both sides of the ball since a shocking home loss to Northern Illinois earlier this season.

The Fighting Irish have averaged 41 points per game in those victories, winning by an average margin of 30 points.

This run includes impressive wins over Power Conference teams, showing that their offense, led by quarterback Riley Leonard, has found its stride.

Leonard, along with running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, has helped Notre Dame develop one of the most feared rushing attacks in the country.

On the flip side, Navy, while undefeated, has benefitted from a favorable schedule and a dominant run game, averaging 275 rushing yards per contest.

However, the Midshipmen have yet to face a defense as formidable as Notre Dame’s. The Fighting Irish rank fifth in the country on total defense and allow under 280 total yards per game, good for 10th-best nationally.

It’s hard to see Navy’s rushing attack dictating the terms of and controlling a game against a Fighting Irish defense chock-full of NFL talent that thrives on limiting explosive plays.

Navy’s top rusher, quarterback Blake Horvath, is a threat on the ground, but the overall gap in talent and physicality between these two teams should be apparent early on.

Expect Notre Dame’s size and speed to win out, and for the Irish to cover the 13.5-point spread on a neutral field.

Over 52.5 Total Points (-110)

While both Notre Dame and Navy are known for their run-heavy offenses, this game has all the makings of a high-scoring affair.

Notre Dame is averaging 34.6 points per game this season, while their defense allows just 11.9 points per contest.

However, they haven’t faced a triple-option offense as efficient as Navy’s. Navy ranks fourth nationally in points per game (45.0) and is top 10 in passing and rushing success rates.

Leonard has been efficient in recent weeks, throwing and running for a combined 12 touchdowns (6 on the ground & 6 through the air) in the last four games.

He has also been contributing to the three-headed rushing attack of Love, Price, and Leonard himself. Together, they’ve combined for over 1,200 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns, making Notre Dame one of the top 10 rushing teams in the country.

On defense, Navy has struggled to stop the run, ranking 84th in EPA per rush and giving up 165 rushing yards per game. The Midshipmen are likely to stack the box to stop the run, which will open up opportunities for Leonard to exploit Navy’s secondary through the air.

Against the best team they have played thus far, Navy surrendered 44 points and 371 passing yards to Memphis QB Seth Henigan, so Leonard, with his sack avoidance, mobility and new-look confidence throwing the ball, could be a handful for this defense.

Even though Notre Dame’s defense is elite, Navy’s offense has been electric. Horvath is one of the top rushing quarterbacks in the country, accumulating 643 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns on just 79 carries this season.

Horvath has matched his rushing production with equally awesome and efficient passing numbers.

Posting a near 64% completion rate, Horvath has 10 touchdown tosses to just one interception on 46 completions for 888 yards. He ranks third nationally with a 90.6 QBR. 

Given Navy’s propensity for giving up big plays on defense, Notre Dame’s ability to break open games with explosive rushing and passing plays and Navy’s sneakily balanced and evidently explosive offense, this game can and will surpass the 52.5-point total.

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Football on site.

Notre Dame vs. Navy odds

Notre Dame

-500 ML

Navy

+375 ML

Spread

Notre Dame -13.5

Total Points

O/U 52.5

Read the latest College Football news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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