The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff got off to a pretty middling start with a myriad of blowouts in the first round of games.
However, the competition is set to heat up in the quarterfinal round.
One of the best matchups of the entire season takes place on Wednesday, January 1 when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish take on the SEC champion Georgia Bulldogs in a matchup between a pair of massive brands at the Sugar Bowl.
Despite being the SEC champion, Georgia was not given a favorable draw in this bracket based on how the seeding shook out. Therefore, the Bulldogs are narrow favorites in this contest, which wouldn't necessarily be expected given that Georgia is the No. 2 seed and Notre Dame is the No. 7 seed in the CFP field.
Let's get into our expert's picks, predictions and best bets for this highly anticipated playoff showdown on New Year's Day.
There is so much to like about this matchup for both teams on both sides of the ball, but our expert is looking to back the underdog in this meeting between two of the biggest programs in the sport.
Notre Dame was a team that our expert had questions about heading into its matchup with Indiana, but the Irish impressed in that game, proving that their strong statistical profile this season was not just a product of their relatively soft schedule.
On the other side, the Bulldogs are going to be without quarterback Carson Beck in this game, which has created a bit of uncertainty in the market with how to accurately price this Georgia team. Beck is certainly worth more to the spread than a lot of other quarterbacks across the country, especially considering what we saw from new quarterback Gunner Stockton in one half of football against Texas.
Given that this is by far the biggest game that Stockton will be playing in, we can expect the Bulldogs' offensive game plan to revolve around running the football early and often, which doesn't bode well against a Notre Dame defense that is ranked eighth in success rate allowed and ninth in opponent EPA per rush.
As for the Irish offense, Riley Leonard is playing his best football of the season at the perfect time, and we have seen Georgia's defense struggle with defending mobile quarterbacks at multiple points this season. With that in mind, Leonard and this dynamic Notre Dame ground game — led by all-world running back Jeremiyah Love — should be set up for success in this one.
This is a game that should come down to the final moments, so let's grab the plus-money with the Irish money line (+110) to knock off the Bulldogs and advance to the semifinal round.
While there are avenues for both sides to win this game, our best bet for this matchup is Under 44.5 total points (-110) on New Year's Day.
Given how both offenses can be expected to approach this game, we should be getting a gameplan that features a heavy dose of running on early downs from each team, as these coaching staffs will likely prioritize not making crucial mistakes and winning the field position battle.
That style of game is an ideal script for the Under because it means that both sides should chew up plenty of clock and not give opposing defenses a chance to spring a turnover and set up their offense with a short field.
There's also something to be said for the fact that both teams could certainly start out slow in a game of this magnitude.
After all, we just saw Notre Dame and Georgia stick with fairly conservative game plans in their most recent contests, and that could be the case for some of this game, as the coaching staffs feel each other out and make adjustments as the game goes along.
Don't expect many scoring drives to end in touchdowns from either side on Wednesday, so let's back the Under in what should end up being the lowest point total of any of the playoff games in the quarterfinal round.
Read more betting picks and predictions for College Football on site.
Notre Dame | +105 ML |
Georgia | -125 ML |
Spread | Georgia -1.5 |
Total Points | O/U 44.0 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.