Notre Dame heads to Provo on Saturday night for one of the biggest games of Week 7, with two undefeated top-10 teams meeting under the lights at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
BYU is disciplined, well coached and comfortable forcing opponents to beat themselves. The Cougars are also 9-0 at home with Bear Bachmeier as the starter and this will clearly be Notre Dame’s toughest environment of the season.
Still, I see a meaningful gap between these teams.
Notre Dame is deeper, more explosive offensively and far better equipped to survive adverse situations. BYU can make this ugly, but I do not trust the Cougars to keep pace for four quarters.
Notre Dame vs. BYU betting picks and predictions
Notre Dame -10.5 (-110)
To credit BYU, they have a clear identity. The Cougars want to play clean football, stay on schedule and wait for their opponent to make the mistake that changes the game.
That formula has worked extremely well, but Notre Dame presents a different level of difficulty.
The Fighting Irish rank second nationally in points per drive, third in success rate, third in EPA per snap and third in EPA per dropback.
They are also seventh in pressure rate allowed, which is massively important against a BYU defense that relies heavily on bringing extra rushers.
The Cougars blitz on 44.6% of opponent dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the country, but rank just 91st in overall pressure rate and 66th in sack rate. They are 136th in pressure generated relative to blitz frequency.
In other words, BYU needs to send bodies to create disruption.
CJ Carr gets the ball out quickly, Notre Dame has protected him well, and I trust the Irish coaching staff to identify where the pressure is coming from and get into the right answers.
BYU's home atmosphere gives it its best chance to force mistakes, but the Cougars will likely need multiple turnovers to win this game.
Notre Dame enters with a +8 turnover margin, while BYU is even. Carr also has just one outing in 18 career starts in which he has coughed the ball up twice.
BYU is dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball and has played one game without star running back LJ Martin, beating Iowa State 24-10.
The Cougars still averaged 5.7 yards per carry, but Notre Dame’s front is a different challenge entirely and Martin remains out.
Notre Dame has lost three straight games against AP top-10 opponents, but I am confident that streak ends here.
Under 46.5 total points (-110)
The Under is less about Notre Dame struggling to score and more about the game BYU wants to play because the Cougars need this to stay in the low 20s.
Without Martin, they are more dependent on Bachmeier's decision-making, quarterback mobility and play-action passing.
Bachmeier has been excellent at home, completing 69.9% of his passes while averaging 235.3 yards per game with a 15-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. BYU has won his nine home starts by an average margin of 26.9 points.
However, Notre Dame has already faced multiple mobile quarterbacks and has done an excellent job preventing them from taking over games with their legs.
The Irish will try to eliminate BYU’s primary receiver, freshman Legend Glasker (5 total TDs), and force the rest of the Cougars' pass catchers to prove they can consistently win outside.
BYU does most of its downfield damage off play action, so if Notre Dame can control the run on early downs, those shot plays become much harder to create.
The Cougars cannot afford to play sideline-to-sideline against a defense this fast and physical, either.
BYU's best strategy is to shorten the game, protect the football and prevent Notre Dame from creating extra possessions.
I see Notre Dame gradually pulling away rather than turning this into a shootout.
Micah Gilbert anytime touchdown (+140)
Micah Gilbert has only 19 receptions this season, but he has turned them into 378 yards, averaging 19.9 yards per catch, which ranks top 10 in the country.
Jordan Faison has more catches, but Gilbert trails him by only nine receiving yards despite having nine fewer receptions.
Faison is more of the underneath zone beater and YAC option. Gilbert is the player I want when Notre Dame gets isolated coverage outside.
Because the Cougars blitz so frequently, they are inevitably going to leave defensive backs in man coverage. Gilbert has been Notre Dame's best weapon in those situations and should get opportunities to win one-on-one.
He has already shown the explosive touchdown upside, scoring from 39 yards against Purdue and 27 yards against Rice. He also erupted for eight catches and 170 yards against Michigan State.
Gilbert barely had to contribute in Notre Dame's 58-7 win over Stanford, finishing with one catch for 10 yards, so I expect a much larger role in a game where the Irish will need their best perimeter players.
He also gives Carr a big target in the red zone if BYU brings pressure and leaves smaller defensive backs isolated.
Notre Dame's passing attack has been more explosive than its rushing attack this season, while BYU's defensive structure creates the kind of coverage opportunities Gilbert can punish.
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Notre Dame vs. BYU odds
Notre Dame | -410 |
BYU | +325 |
Spread | Notre Dame -10.5 |
Total Points | O/U 46.5 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
