Potato Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State Picks, Predictions and Odds

The Potato Bowl pits two defensive-minded teams, Northern Illinois and Fresno State, against each other on the famous blue turf of Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho.

With both teams missing several key players, including their starting quarterbacks, this matchup is expected to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.

Northern Illinois comes into the game as slight favorites at -3 (-115), while the total is set at just 40.5 points.

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State betting picks and predictions

Northern Illinois -3 (-115)

Northern Illinois enters this game with a seasoned, physical roster that is well-suited for a grind-it-out style of football. The Huskies, making their 21st bowl appearance, bring a wealth of experience to Boise.

Their starting lineup includes 16 seniors, many of whom have played in 50 or more games during their college careers. That kind of veteran presence will be crucial in a game featuring numerous opt-outs on both sides.

Despite losing starting quarterback Ethan Hampton and several wide receivers to the transfer portal, NIU is prepared to rely on its bread-and-butter strategy: controlling time of possession and establishing a strong ground game.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Josh Holst, making just his third career start, hasn’t impressed much as a passer (47/81 with 0 TDs and 1 INT), but he adds value with his mobility.

Holst will likely lean on a potent running back duo in Gavin Williams (741 yards, 4 TDs) and freshman standout Telly Johnson Jr. (424 yards, 4 TDs).

This rushing attack could find success against a Fresno State defense that is ranked just 81st nationally in EPA (expected points added) allowed per rush. With Fresno being much stronger against the pass, Northern Illinois will stick to its run-heavy identity to wear down the Bulldogs.

On defense, NIU’s strength lies in shutting down the run, as they have yet to allow a single 100-yard rusher this season.

They rank second nationally in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert just 25.9% of the time. With Fresno’s run game already struggling, this matchup favors the Huskies.

Under 40.5 Total Points (-110)

The total for this game is set at just 40.5 points and it’s not hard to see why. Both teams will rely on backup quarterbacks with little experience and both offenses have been depleted by opt-outs.

Northern Illinois’ defense has been one of the stingiest in the nation this season, holding opponents to an average of just 6.6 points per game in the second half.

They’ve posted three second-half shutouts and have gone three straight games without allowing a second-half touchdown.

Led by first-team All-MAC defensive tackle Devonte O’Malley, who has 8 sacks on the year, NIU’s front seven could present a major problem for Fresno State’s offense, which has struggled to run the ball all year.

Fresno’s offense has been inconsistent and the loss of starting quarterback Mikey Keene will likely amplify those struggles. The Bulldogs are a pass-first team, but they’ll face an NIU defense that ranks 38th nationally in EPA per dropback.

Backup quarterbacks Joshua Wood and Jayden Mandal are unproven and will be thrown into a tough situation against this disciplined Huskies defense. Even with Keene under center, Fresno scored 30 or more points in just four games this season.

On the other side of the ball, Fresno’s defense has held its own against tough competition, giving up just 23 points at Michigan, 19 to Washington State and 20 at UCLA earlier this season.

While they’ve struggled more against the run, their ability to limit explosive plays will make it tough for Northern Illinois to light up the scoreboard.

NIU’s offense isn’t designed to generate quick strikes, especially without top wide receiver Trayvon Rudolph, who led the team with 392 receiving yards.

The Huskies will focus on methodical drives, running the ball and keeping the clock moving. With Holst averaging just 5 yards per passing attempt, big plays through the air are unlikely.

Ultimately, this game feels like a race to 17 or 20 points - if either team can even get there. The under looks like a strong play, as neither offense is equipped to exploit the other’s weaknesses.

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NCAAF on site.

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State odds

Northern Illinois	-150 ML
Fresno State	+125 ML
Spread	Northern Illinois -3
Total Points	O/U 40.5

Read the latest NCAAF news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.