Miami vs. Florida: Picks, Predictions and Odds

Among the marquee matchups in Week 1 of the 2024 College Football season is a showdown between the Miami Hurricanes and Florida Gators in Gainesville, Florida. 

The in-state rivals will be going head-to-head for the first time since 2019 and for the second time over the past decade when they meet again on Saturday afternoon at Florida’s Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

Even in Week 1 of the season, it is already a crucial contest for two programs that have been out of the National Championship conversation in recent years.

At Miami, head coach Mario Cristobal has come under fire for a general lack of performance and especially for various infractions of game mismanagement – most notably in last year’s collapse against Georgia Tech.

In two seasons at the helm of the Hurricanes, Cristobal has compiled records of 5-7 and 7-6 while going 3-5 in the ACC on both occasions. 

Florida’s Billy Napier is also firmly on the hot seat. He has also been at his current school for two years, with similar success – or lack thereof.

The Gators went 6-7 in 2022 and 5-7 last season, missing out on a bowl game after losing the Las Vegas Bowl to Oregon State by a humiliating 30-3 score at the end of Napier’s first year.

Needless to say, each team could really use a win in hopes of starting 2024 on the right foot. 

Miami vs. Florida betting picks and predictions 

Florida +2.5 (-105)

Although the program as a whole can recover from last year’s disaster against Georgia Tech and its overall malaise, Cristobal himself may not be able to – especially not if he and his team get off to a slow start to the upcoming season.

And a slow start is exactly what may be in store, because Florida is no pushover despite its own recent struggles. 

The Gators’ offense appears to be healthy following all kinds of injury problems during the 2023 campaign and quarterback Graham Mertz showcased dramatic improvement last season.

Looking like one of the best QBs in the high-powered SEC, Mertz and WR Eugene Wilson III (61 catches, 538 yards, six touchdowns last season) should be able to take advantage of a young and unproven Miami secondary. The Hurricanes lost defensive backs James Williams and Kamren Kinchens to the NFL.

Although Miami’s front seven is stout, if Florida can establish a ground game in the early stages of the contest it will open up the aerial attack and neutralize Miami’s pass rush.

Running back Montrell Johnson Jr. Is back after leading the Gators with 152 carries and 817 yards last year. He also five touchdowns on the ground while also making 30 receptions for 236 yards and an additional TD. 

This has all the makings of a competitive contest between two rivals who don’t particularly like each other even if they aren’t in the same conference. Florida has a decent chance to win outright, but getting 2.5 points could end up coming in handy. 

Over 54.0 total points (-110) 

Although Florida should be in line for some success this weekend, it’s hard to see the home team entirely shutting down Miami’s offensive attack. The Hurricanes hit the transfer portal and recruiting trail hard with plenty of NIL money, resulting in a potent roster on offense.

Senior quarterback Cam Ward, a Washington State transfer, and junior running back Damien Martinez are the standouts on what figures to be a dynamic Miami offense.

Ward threw 48 touchdown passes compared to 15 interceptions in his two seasons in the Pac-12. Martinez, formerly at Oregon State, rushed for 1185 yards and nine scores in 2023.

The forecast is calling for hot and humid weather. That should favor the offenses, which are capable of exposing secondaries that are expected to struggle in 2024.

Moreover, each offense should be comfortable throwing the ball with their experienced quarterbacks; a lot of passing naturally lengthens the game and provides additional opportunities for points. Let’s back the Over on Saturday. 

Miami vs. Florida odds

Miami	-150 ML
Florida	+125 ML
Spread	Miami -2.5
Total Points	O/U 54.0

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.