Iowa State vs. Arizona State: Picks, Predictions and Odds

It’s been a wild season in the Big 12, and it’s only fitting that its championship game features a couple of wildly different teams this week, as the Iowa State Cyclones will take on the Arizona State Sun Devils in Dallas on Saturday.

Iowa State was a preseason darling in the betting market, and the Cyclones have mostly met expectations en route to a 10-2 regular season.

Conversely, Arizona State was projected to be a four win team over the summer so clearly this is a game that looked a lot different on paper prior to the season.

But both these teams are playing solid football heading into this title game.

Iowa State vs. Arizona State betting picks and predictions

Arizona State ML (-125)

This is a do-or-die game for both sides, as the only path into the College Football Playoff is to win.

Iowa State comes in on a three-game winning streak, most recently beating Kansas State in what was an ugly offensive showing for both teams to end the season.

As for Arizona State, Kenny Dillingham’s team has won five in a row, and they seem to just get better and exceed market expectations each week. 

Given the profile of these two teams, we can expect this game to be a battle, hence why the line is sitting under a field goal.

Given the stakes at hand and the possible endings to this game that could involve two-point conversions, this might be a spot where paying a little extra juice to take the straight money line on Arizona State is worth it.

These teams match strengths and weaknesses well, as Iowa State is more effective throwing the ball on offense, while Arizona State is better at defending the run than against the pass.

We can expect the Cyclones to struggle mightily on the ground, and that should force them to throw more in obvious passing situations.

On the other side, Iowa State is third in the nation in passing yards allowed, but this is a defense that can be had on the ground, sitting at 96th in rushing yards allowed.

The Sun Devils are an excellent rushing offense, and simply a middle of the road passing attack. Both teams should be able to play to their offensive strengths here, but it’s hard to trust an Iowa State offense that consistently struggles on early downs (71st in Early Downs EPA, 91st in success rate) and could be in trouble if it gets behind the chains in this game.

Overall, this Arizona State team is way better than most have given it credit for, and it’s hard not to love what Dillingham is doing in Tempe.

This one should be a close battle throughout, but backing the Sun Devils might just be the way to go thanks to their edge at the offensive skill positions, and with a coach that isn’t afraid to take risks and play aggressive football when it matters most.

Under 49.5 (-110)

While an over game script would traditionally go hand-in-hand with an Arizona State cover, we may well see a bit less scoring than usual in this one. 

Due to the injuries that Arizona State has suffered on the perimeter - most notably to top receiver Jordan Tyson - it seems likely Dillingham will opt for a run-heavy game script, involving a ton of carries for Skattebo against an Iowa State defense that is 84th in rushing success rate allowed this season.

That should allow the Sun Devils to matriculate the ball downfield. 

On the other side, the Cyclones offense has largely been a disappointment down the stretch of this season, including posting just a 31% success rate against Kansas State at home a week ago.

While these conditions are going to be more friendly than the weather we saw in Ames last week, it’s still hard to trust this unit in a big spot given how middling some of their efficiency metrics have been in conference play. ]

There is a real possibility for Arizona State to win this game, while still going under the total of 49.5.

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NCAAF on site.

Iowa State vs. Arizona State odds

Iowa State	+105 ML
Arizona State	-125 ML
Spread	ASU -2
Total Points	49.5 O/U

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.