Indiana heads to Ann Arbor on Saturday looking to respond after its 22-game winning streak ended in a 19-15 home loss to Ohio State.
The Hoosiers were inches away from stealing that game late, with Nick Marsh narrowly landing out of bounds on what could have been the winning touchdown.
Michigan, meanwhile, found life after making a quarterback change against Penn State, benching Bryce Underwood at halftime for freshman Tommy Carr in a 21-18 victory.
Michigan may have found a spark, but Indiana is a substantial step up in competition.
Indiana vs. Michigan betting picks and predictions
Indiana -6.5 (-123)
The Hoosiers did plenty right against Ohio State. They outgained the Buckeyes by nearly a yard per play and pushed them to the final minute despite losing two fumbles and struggling to finish drives.
Indiana also held Ohio State to 19 points and Jeremiah Smith to just four catches for 68 yards.
Michigan's offense presents a much easier matchup. Carr deserves credit for what he did against Penn State. He completed 5 of 7 passes for 47 yards, ran for 36 yards and a touchdown and, most importantly, did not turn the ball over.
Michigan's offense scored 21 points over seven drives with him after producing none on its first five possessions with Underwood.
But now Indiana gets a full week to prepare for him. The Wolverines want to lean on power and inside zone, rushing on roughly 60% of their snaps.
Indiana's defense is built to handle that, ranking third nationally in defensive rushing success rate and playing particularly well against inside zone.
That should force Carr into uncomfortable third-and-long situations in his first career start.
Michigan's defense is legitimate, but its offense still has too many limitations to keep pace if Indiana gets into the 20s.
Over 41.5 total points (-111)
Michigan's defense is the clearest reason. The Wolverines have been excellent at preventing explosive passes and forcing offenses to sustain drives, which is where Indiana has been less convincing this season.
Hoover has made plenty of big plays, but he has also missed throws the last couple of weeks, including some routine ones when the pocket has been clean.
Against a Michigan secondary designed to keep everything in front, Indiana may have to be patient instead of hunting chunk gains.
The Hoosiers' run game has also stalled recently.
They were stuffed on 43% of their rushing attempts against Ohio State and averaged just three yards per play on 28 carries. Michigan's front is another difficult matchup, ranking 34th in EPA against the run and playing especially well against inside zone.
With regards to Michigan's offense, Carr provided a spark against Penn State, but he attempted only seven passes and now faces Indiana in his first career start.
The Hoosiers can game-plan specifically for his mobility and option elements and their front has improved throughout the season.
Michigan should try to shorten the game, lean on the run and protect its freshman quarterback from obvious passing situations.
With both defenses owning clear advantages against the opposing offense’s preferred approach, I expect long possessions, limited explosives and a game where points are difficult to manufacture.
Charlie Becker anytime touchdown (+110)
Charlie Becker has developed into one of the best receivers in the Big Ten, leading Indiana with 694 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.
He also comes into this game after posting nine catches for 165 yards against Ohio State without finding the end zone. That makes two consecutive games without a score for the sure-handed wideout.
That drought is notable because Becker had scored eight times in the team’s first five games. Michigan’s defensive structure may help create opportunities for Becker.
While Becker is typically seen as a jump-ball deep threat, he is not dependent on one route type. While Michigan keeps everything in front, Becker can win underneath, work intermediate windows and create after the catch.
At 17.8 yards per reception, he has also shown enough explosiveness to score without Indiana reaching the red zone first.
Hoover does not need to force the ball downfield against this secondary. If he takes what Michigan gives him and works through his progressions, Becker should see enough volume to create scoring chances.
At plus money, I like him to end the drought.
Read more college football picks and predictions on site.
Indiana vs. Michigan odds
Indiana | -280 |
Michigan | +230 |
Spread | Indiana -6.5 |
Total | O/U 41.5 |
Read the latest college football news on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
