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Gator Bowl: Duke vs. Ole Miss Picks, Predictions and Odds

One of the more fascinating non-College Football Playoff games remaining on the schedule is the Gator Bowl, which features a matchup between the Duke Blue Devils and Ole Miss Rebels in a bowl season showdown between these ACC and SEC foes. 

The Blue Devils were one of the more surprising stories in the sport this season, winning nine games and greatly exceeding all expectations in an ACC where many teams underperformed this season. 

On the other side, Ole Miss was a team that was in prime position to make the CFP before stumbling in a major way in a loss to Florida in one of the final weeks of the season.

Will the Rebels bounce back from that disappointment, or will the Blue Devils pull off the upset at the Gator Bowl?

Duke vs. Ole Miss betting picks and predictions

Ole Miss -17.5 (-110)

The handicap on this game is all about if Ole Miss truly cares about being in this game. If the Rebels are able to overcome the mental hurdle of a lost season and a missed opportunity to compete for a national title, they should cruise to a three-score victory on Thursday. 

Quarterback Jaxson Dart will be suiting up in his final game in an Ole Miss uniform, and he’ll be joined by the majority of his teammates in this game.

Lane Kiffin’s team has routinely played well in bowl games, including a convincing victory over Penn State in the Peach Bowl a season ago. Therefore, we can expect a solid effort from Dart, and the Rebels offense, in this one. 

On the other side, Duke is a team that will be without its starting quarterback as Malik Murphy has transferred out. Murphy provided something of a dual-threat ability to an offense that was pretty anemic in obvious passing situations on late downs this season (129th in third down success rate), and his legs and powerful arm will be missed against an excellent Rebels defense.

The Blue Devils were already 118th in offensive success rate and 93rd in points per drive (per College Football Insiders) with Murphy on the team, so this is not a unit that should be expected to produce against Walter Nolen, JJ Pegues and the rest of this Ole Miss defense that ranks third nationally in success rate allowed and fourth in points per drive allowed. 

While this is one of the biggest spreads we’ve seen in this bowl season, the current gap between the teams is even larger than the number would indicate on Thursday. Let’s take Ole Miss -17.5 at -110 to finish the season on a high note in Jacksonville.

Under 51.5 Total Points (-110)

While there are avenues for both teams to cover this spread, the path to a win for either side is one that shades to the Under.

This is not your typical Ole Miss football team. In fact, the Rebels have been one of the more reliable Under teams in the nation this season thanks to their excellent defense and how they have routinely been priced in the market. 

This is still one of the best defenses in the nation and most of their best players are going to suit up in this game. That spells trouble for a Duke offense that already had its limitations with Murphy at quarterback, and could have serious trouble scoring with a backup quarterback making his first start against an elite Ole Miss defensive front.   

On the other side of the ball, the Rebels have the capability to score in bunches. However, Kiffin’s team should focus on establishing dominance at the line of scrimmage on early downs in this game (ranked fourth nationally in Early Downs EPA), and the Rebels could easily take their foot off the gas in the second half once they’ve established a big enough lead.    

Therefore it is difficult to see this game being a shootout. With that in mind, let’s back Under 51.5 at -110 in the Gator Bowl. 

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Football on site.

Duke vs. Ole Miss odds

Duke

+550 ML

Ole Miss

-800 ML

Spread

Ole Miss -17.5

Total Points

O/U 51.5

Read all you need to know about Duke vs. Ole Miss in the Gator Bowl on site.

Read the latest College Football news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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