After a wild and unpredictable first nine weeks of the College Football season, Week 10 is just around the corner and will provide plenty of games with conference championship implications.
The Week 9 slate didn’t produce nearly as much excitement or upsets as what we saw before it, but that just raises the stakes for this weekend's compelling matchups in the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Group of 5.
Will this week be a return to the chaos and upsets that shake up the College Football Playoff picture, or will the chalk mostly hold once again?
Week 10 has a few blockbuster matchups on the schedule, including a couple of games with serious playoff implications in the Big Ten and ACC. Without any further ado, let’s get into our best bets for this week’s slate.
For our best bet on the Week 10 slate, let’s start with the No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions +4.5 against the No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes.
This is easily the biggest game of the weekend in the country and this Penn State team is not only poised to qualify for its first ever College Football Playoff berth, but would have the inside track to a Big Ten title game appearance with a win on Saturday.
While the injury status of quarterback Drew Allar is in question, the quotes from head coach James Franklin following Penn State’s win over Wisconsin leads us to believe that Allar will be under center when kickoff rolls around on Saturday.
Allar has been excellent in his second season as a starter, averaging 10 yards per attempt and spearheading the Nittany Lions to a top five passing offense this season.
Penn State can also generate successful runs and control the clock in the ground game, as the Nittany Lions are top-20 in rushing success rate and third in early downs estimated points added (EPA).
On the other side of the ball, the Penn State defense is a top 10 unit in the nation and should be able to hold down the Buckeyes struggling rushing attack.
The Buckeyes have real issues on the offensive line and that doesn't bode well against a Nittany Lions defense that should generate consistent pressure on Ohio State QB Will Howard and make life difficult for Ohio State’s passing game.
Expect the Nittany Lions to take advantage of the opportunity at hand and keep this game close, if not win outright.
For our second pick on the Week 10 college football slate, let’s back the No. 1 Oregon Ducks -14.5 over the Michigan Wolverines.
These teams are trending in completely different directions, as the Ducks look like the most complete team in the nation at the moment, while Michigan struggled mightily on offense this past week even in a victory over Michigan State.
The Wolverines' offense has been a major issue all season long, sitting outside the top 100 in Early Downs EPA and net points per drive, while being only slightly better at 88th in passing success rate.
And even on defense, Michigan is 81st in third down success rate and 115th in quality possessions allowed.
None of those numbers inspire confidence that the Wolverines will be able to generate stops with any sort of consistency and that spells trouble against an Oregon offense that is a top five unit in the nation, averaging over seven yards per play in the Big Ten and sitting inside the top 10 in EPA margin and success rate.
Heisman favorite Dillon Gabriel is playing some of his best football of the season in recent weeks, while Jordan James is running well behind an offensive line that is playing its best football.
Meanwhile, the Ducks' dynamic duo of Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart at wide receiver have generated consistent explosiveness downfield, which was previously missing earlier in the season.
Oregon should keep rolling in a prime spot to dominate one of the blue bloods of the sport on Saturday.
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For our final pick for Week 10 of the college football season, take the Miami Hurricanes -20.0 over the Duke Blue Devils.
For the second consecutive week, our expert is fading the Blue Devils following a very fortunate result the previous week.
Yes, Duke did cover the number in an overtime loss against SMU last Saturday, but the Blue Devils were anything but impressive in doing so, particularly on offense.
In fact, SMU turned the ball over a whopping six times in the contest, while Duke had zero turnovers. Yet the Blue Devils still managed to lose the game. That doesn’t bode well for this week’s matchup against one of the better teams in the nation.
It’s hard to expect Duke to handle a Miami team that is firing on all cylinders at the moment, especially on offense.
The Hurricanes offense just rolled over Florida State in a rivalry game in Week 9 and the Miami defense should be able to tee off against a Duke offense that is outside the top 105 in both rushing and passing success rate, while checking in at 132nd in the nation in third and fourth down success rate.
Not only is that side of the ball a mismatch, but Miami’s offense is easily the best that this Duke defense will have faced all season.
The Blue Devils have a solid defense ranking 21st in success rate allowed, but one that is a bit over-inflated metrically due to their schedule of quarterbacks faced to this point.
Look for an overrated Duke defense to be exposed in what should be a massive win for Mario Cristobal’s team at home.
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.