After a wild and unpredictable first eight weeks of the college football season, Week 9 is just around the corner and that means a plethora of games for football fans to enjoy.
The Week 8 slate wasn’t quite as loaded as the one before it, but we still had plenty of exciting games and wild finishes across the SEC, ACC, Big 12 and in the Group of 5.
Will we see more upsets and chaos that continue to shake up the College Football Playoff picture, or will the chalk mostly hold this time around?
Week 9 doesn’t quite have the same blockbuster matchups on the schedule that the previous two weeks had, but there are still games in the power conferences that should have serious playoff implications.
Additionally, there are also a couple of major contests in the Group of 5 that should have an impact on the playoff race across multiple conferences. Let’s get into our best bets for this week’s slate.
For our best bet on the Week 9 slate, let’s start with a Friday night game and take the Boise State Broncos to cover this short spread against the UNLV Rebels.
This is the game of the year in the Group of 5, as these are the two teams in the Group of 5 with the best chance of making some real noise in the College Football Playoff if they were able to get there.
While most college football fans are likely familiar with Boise State, this UNLV team has been excellent all season long, including pulling off multiple upset wins over Big 12 competition back in September.
With that said, this number on the Broncos is a bit short at under a field goal, especially when factoring in the advantage Boise State holds on the ground in this one. Running back Ashton Jeanty is a one-man offense, and he’ll get to face a defensive unit that has quietly dropped off a bit against the run in recent weeks.
Not only will Jeanty and this Boise State rushing attack represent the toughest test for the Rebels defense, but the Broncos are still ranked third in early downs estimated points added (EPA) and eighth in success rate on third and fourth downs.
Compare that to a UNLV defense that is 92nd in passing success rate allowed and 60th in third and fourth down success rate, and there should be plenty of avenues for Boise State to find success in this game.
On the other side, the Broncos are going to have to deal with a UNLV offense that has taken off in recent weeks with new quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams under center.
However, this Boise State defense just smothered Washington State QB John Mateer (20 rush attempts for just 28 yards) in its only meeting against a similar profile of quarterback this season, so that should inspire some confidence in the Broncos’ ability to stop the QB run game on Friday.
This game should be close for the majority of the contest, but it’s hard not to back Boise State -2.5 (-115) here.
For our second pick for the Week 9 slate, take the Kansas State Wildcats -9.5 (-110) over the Kansas Jayhawks in this Big 12 rivalry matchup.
The Sunflower Showdown has historically been much more favorable to Kansas State than its in-state rival, and that shouldn’t change on Saturday.
Led by dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson and an offense that has been dominant in the trenches for most of the season, the Wildcats profile as a team that should be a matchup nightmare for a Kansas defense that has struggled mightily with defending the rush this season (95th in rushing success rate allowed, 83rd in EPA per rush).
It doesn’t get much better on offense for the Jayhawks, as this once-explosive unit is now outside the top 75 in success rate, while sitting at 83rd in EPA per pass and 88th in points per opportunity.
The Wildcats have historically owned this rivalry — winning the last 15 meetings in this series — and it's easy to see why that has continued into this decade when comparing the styles of a Chris Klieman-coached team to that of Lance Leipold. Kansas State is a team that is built from the inside out, while Kansas has struggled at the line of scrimmage all season.
Ultimately, the Kansas front seven should be in a world of trouble in this one, so let's back the Wildcats at under double digits while the number is still available.
For our final pick for Week 9 of the college football season, take the SMU Mustangs -11.0 (-110) over the Duke Blue Devils.
Even though they got a win over Florida State last Friday, the Blue Devils were anything but impressive in doing so, particularly on offense. In fact, it took Florida State turning the ball over on three consecutive plays — including a pick six — for Duke to gain any sort of separation in the contest.
Despite being gifted incredible turnover luck, the Blue Devils still just won that game by one possession at home.
Now, Duke will have to deal with an SMU team that is firing on all cylinders at the moment. The Mustangs just went out to northern California and covered the spread with ease against Stanford in a tricky spot, despite turning the ball over three times themselves.
SMU’s defense has been stout, sitting at fourth in success rate allowed, fourth in EPA per rush and first in early downs EPA. The Mustangs should be able to tee off against a Duke offense that is outside the top 100 in both rushing and passing success rate, and is 132nd in the nation in third and fourth down success rate.
Not only is that area of the game a mismatch, but SMU’s offense is easily the best that this Duke defense will have faced all season.
The Blue Devils have a solid defense, but one that is a bit over-inflated metrically due to a weak schedule. Look for this unit to be exposed a bit as the Mustangs roll to a double digit victory in Durham.
Read more betting picks and predictions for College Football on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.