College Football Week 5: Best Bets, Picks and Predictions

Week 5 of the 2024 College Football season is just around the corner, the schedule is heating up, and that means a plethora of games for college football fans to enjoy.

The Week 4 slate saw a number of close games played, including Illinois beating Nebraska in overtime, Michigan beating USC by three, and Colorado beating Baylor in double OT. Will we see some major upsets this week, or will the chalk mostly hold for a third straight week? 

Week 5 features a couple of absolutely massive games between power programs, plus a number of games further down the board that could have a serious impact on the College Football Playoff race.

Without any further ado, it’s time to dig into the schedule and find some winners for this week. 

College Football Week 5 betting picks and predictions

Best Bet: UCF Knights -13.5 (-110) vs. Colorado Buffaloes

For our expert’s best bet on the Week 3 slate, take the UCF Knights to cover the spread in this matchup against the Colorado Buffaloes.

This is one of the best situational spots of the week, as Colorado is fresh off a miraculous win at home against Baylor in which the Buffaloes converted a Hail Mary as time expired in regulation, before winning in overtime on a Bears fumble as their running back was about to cross the goal line. 

On the other side, UCF is coming off a bye and will get to stay at home, where the Knights have one of the best records in college football in recent years. With Colorado having just beaten an in-state rival (Colorado State) and following that up with an emotional win last Saturday, there couldn’t be a better spot to fade this mediocre Buffaloes team. 

Colorado is simply outmatched in the trenches in this matchup, as UCF is one of the best rushing teams in the nation with RJ Harvey and Peny Boone in the backfield. The Knights are also one of the best defenses against the run in college football, so Colorado will likely have to depend on Shadeur Sanders to make things happen down the field with his arm once again.

UCF’s defense has been excellent on early downs and Colorado’s offense has been very poor on third downs to this point, which presents another problem for the Buffaloes in this game.

The Knights should come out focused on both sides of the ball, and if Colorado starts out a bit sluggish after the high of last week’s win, then this one could get ugly in a hurry. Let’s back UCF -13.5 (-110) with our best bet this week.

Fresno State Bulldogs +4.0 (-110) vs. UNLV Rebels

For our second pick for the Week 4 college football slate, back the Fresno State Bulldogs to cover the spread as 4-point underdogs against the UNLV Rebels.

Both of these teams are Mountain West contenders, and this game sets up to be a fantastic, back-and-forth affair. However, the Rebels are a bit overvalued in this game due to their previous results this season.

UNLV has already knocked off a pair of Big 12 teams in Houston and Kansas, giving the Rebels two of the more impressive nonconference wins for a Group of 5 team this season.

While the win over the Cougars was certainly legitimate, UNLV probably should’ve lost to Kansas upon further examination. After all, Kansas outgained the Rebels by nearly 100 yards, but the Jayhawks also lost the turnover battle 2-0 in a game where they averaged six yards per play.

Fresno State put up a real fight in the Big House against Michigan in Week 1 and the Bulldogs absolutely deserved to cover in that game. Since that point, the Bulldogs have won three straight games in convincing fashion and enter this game with a 3-1 record against the spread. 

This is a fundamentally sound football team with one of the best defenses in the Group of 5, and they should force UNLV quarterback Matthew Sluka into making similar mistakes that he did against Kansas. Unlike the Jayhawks, however, this Bulldogs team will make UNLV pay for those mistakes.

With the Rebels due for some major regression after a fortunate victory, let’s take Fresno State +4.0 (-110) for our second college football Week 5 prediction.

Northern Illinois Huskies +7.5 (-110) vs. NC State Wolfpack

For our final pick for Week 5 of the college football season, take the Northern Illinois Huskies +7.5 (-110) against the NC State Wolfpack on Saturday.

This sets up to be a great spot to back Northern Illinois following a demoralizing loss to Buffalo as double digit favorites. The Huskies are not a team that profiles well as a favorite, especially against a conference foe, and we saw head coach Thomas Hammock’s team look uncomfortable in that role on Saturday. 

How the Huskies are set up to succeed or fail in a given matchup largely comes down to their style of play. Northern Illinois employs a rush-heavy offense that shortens the game and limits possessions, which makes them much more intriguing as an underdog, particularly against a defense that is struggling against the rush this season.

NC State is in the midst of an awful season, and there’s still room for the Wolpfack to fall given the injury issues they have on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Grayson McCall was supposed to be a massive upgrade at the position from a season ago, but that hasn’t come to fruition, and the veteran QB is now hurt and it is uncertain if he’ll play in this game. 

Defensively, the Wolfpack are 101st in success rate and 91st in EPA per rush per College Football Insiders, a couple of metrics that don’t bode well when playing a rush heavy team like Northern Illinois.

This one could come down to the final few possessions, so let’s target the Huskies with our point spread pick for this game.

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Football on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.