College Football Week 11: Best Bets, Picks and Predictions

Week 11 of the 2024 College Football season has arrived, races for conference championship berths are heating up, and this slate will give us plenty of compelling matchups across the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 to enjoy.

We were 2-1 with our Week 10 predictions in last week's column, so let's keep that momentum going this week by attacking a trio of totals.

This week's slate has a few blockbuster matchups on the schedule, including a couple of games with serious playoff implications in the SEC and Big 12.

College Football Week 11 betting picks and predictions

Best Bet: Georgia vs. Ole Miss Under 55.5 total points (-110)

The best bet on the Week 11 slate could be the Under 55.5 (-110) between the Georgia Bulldogs and Ole Miss Rebels.

This is arguably the biggest game of the weekend in terms of SEC and College Football Playoff implications, which suggests a lower-scoring affair between two of the best defenses in the nation.

As has been proven on multiple occasions already this season, this isn't your typically elite Georgia team. As we just saw in a disappointing performance against Florida a week ago, the Bulldogs are uncharacteristically sloppy, don't look as connected on both sides of the ball and have struggled with both starting slowly and putting teams away this season.

Things won't get any easier for Kirby Smart's group against an Ole Miss defense that is quietly one of the best in the nation, sitting at second nationally in success rate allowed, fourth in estimated points added (EPA) margin and first in net points per drive. 

On the other side, this Georgia defense isn't quite as dominant as what we've seen from the Bulldogs in years past. However, this is a unit that still ranks inside the top 10 in pretty much every meaningful metric, including success rate allowed, opponent EPA per rush and third and fourth down success rate allowed. 

Both coaches are likely to keep things close to the vest early on and avoid taking chances, especially given the magnitude of this game.

Look to take Under 55.5 total points for this contest. 

Maryland vs. Oregon Under 57.5 total points (-110)

For the second pick on the Week 11 slate, it could be worth backing Under 57.5 (-110) points between Maryland and Oregon in Eugene.

These teams are trending in completely different directions, as the Ducks look like the most complete team in the nation at the moment, while Maryland has dropped three of its last four games. 

The Terrapins are having a difficult season on both sides of the ball, and their offense (77th in success rate, 70th in net points per drive) shouldn't see much success against an Oregon defense that is a top 10 unit against the pass and top 20 in third and fourth down success rate.

Oregon's defensive front is also getting healthier with each passing week, so it'll be hard for the Terps to generate consistent success on the ground as well. 

On the other side, Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel is playing some of his best football of the season over the last month, which has put him squarely in the Heisman Trophy conversation heading into this final month. Gabriel and the Oregon offense continues to thrive behind an offensive line whose emergence has completely unlocked the rest of the offense in Big Ten play. 

However, while the Ducks should race out to a big lead by halftime, there have been multiple instances this season where they have beaten opponents without truly running up the score. Therefore, with a fairly high total set for this game, there are plenty of avenues for the under to cash.

As we've seen in previous Big Ten games this season, Oregon has shown that it is more than happy to simply run the ball and ice games in the second half. There is a real possibility for Dan Lanning's team to win by a comfortable margin while still falling below this total, and with rain expected in the forecast on Saturday, the Under looks the way to play.

Michigan vs. Indiana First Quarter Under 10.5 total points (-130)

For our final pick for Week 11 of the college football season, take the First Quarter Under 10.5 (-130) between the Michigan Wolverines and Indiana Hoosiers.

There doesn't look to be much value on the full game Under at the current number, but there is on these teams to start off a bit slower than oddsmakers are anticipating. This is predominantly a wager on how the game script will go for the first couple of drives, which should feature both teams keeping things a bit more on the conservative side as they feel each other out.

Indiana's offense has been a machine all season long, but this will be the best defensive front that the Hoosiers have faced.

Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosiers passing offense did get off to a bit of a slow start against Michigan State a week ago, before lighting it up over the final three quarters. It could be a similar scenario this week given that this will only be Rourke's second game since returning from a thumb injury. 

This Michigan team is still a work in progress on offense, but one thing the Wolverines can do well is play keep away with their ground game. Sherrone Moore's team is 25th in rushing success rate and 23rd in third and fourth down success rate, so as long as the Wolverines are able to stay ahead of the chains on early downs, they should keep the ball away from Indiana's electric passing offense in the early going.

It certainly helps that the Wolverines are one of the slowest teams in the nation in terms of seconds per play this season. Given that there shouldn't be more than a couple of possessions in this opening quarter, it's hard to see both of these teams exceeding 10.5 points on Saturday, especially since multiple touchdowns would likely be required.

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.