Clemson vs. SMU: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The ACC Championship Game on Saturday, December 7, features an exciting matchup between the Clemson Tigers (9-3) and the SMU Mustangs (11-1).

Both teams are vying for a College Football Playoff berth, adding immense stakes to this showdown at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

While Clemson is no stranger to this stage under Dabo Swinney, SMU is the conference newcomer looking to cap off an impressive inaugural ACC season with a statement victory.

The Mustangs' lone loss was against a BYU team that started this season 9-0, and SMU will see this game as an opportunity to validate its meteoric rise under head coach Rhett Lashley.

While Clemson is battle-tested but flawed, they do have an advantage with this game taking place close to their home field.

SMU are currently listed as -2.5-point favorites with the Total set at 56.0 points, but can the Mustangs hold up against Clemson's seasoned roster, or will the Tigers bounce back from last week's disappointing loss to South Carolina?

Here's a deeper look at the betting angles, predictions and keys to this highly anticipated matchup.

Clemson vs. SMU betting picks and predictions

Clemson +2.5 (-110)

Clemson comes into this game after a tough 17-14 loss to South Carolina in their regular-season finale, a game that ended in heartbreak with a tipped-ball interception in the final minutes.

Despite the setback, the Tigers were gifted a chance to play in this title game after Syracuse defeated Miami in Week 14. Clemson has experience on its side, having dominated this championship stage under Swinney in recent years.

Quarterback Cade Klubnik, the 2022 ACC Championship Game MVP, will lead the Tigers' offense. He nearly carried Clemson to a win over South Carolina last week, throwing for 280 yards and adding 62 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

However, he struggled under pressure, a concerning trend against an SMU defense that ranks third nationally in pressure rate.

Clemson’s offense has sputtered at times, especially in the back half of the season. Running back Phil Mafah, who was a reliable option early in the year, has slowed significantly, averaging just three yards per carry over the last three games.

The Tigers will need a more balanced attack to contend with SMU’s versatile defense.

Defensively, Clemson could have the edge. The Tigers' physicality and athleticism up front present a significant challenge for an SMU offense that hasn’t faced a defense this talented all season.

While SMU’s explosive attack has thrived behind quarterback Kevin Jennings, Clemson’s ability to generate pressure and disrupt the passing game could be pivotal.

Additionally, Bank of America Stadium’s proximity to Clemson makes this almost a home game for the Tigers.

Swinney’s teams have historically thrived at this venue, giving Clemson bettors a reason to back the underdog in what is a must-win game for the Tigers’ postseason hopes.

Under 56.0 Total Points (-110)

Both teams feature dynamic offenses, but this matchup may lean more toward a defensive battle.

Clemson boasts one of the most athletic defenses SMU has faced all season, while SMU’s front seven, led by its top-15-ranked pass rush, should create problems for Klubnik and the Tigers’ offensive line.

The Mustangs, despite their prolific offense, have struggled against top-tier defenses. Their worst offensive performance with Jennings at quarterback came in a 1-point win over Duke, a team with a comparable pressure rate to Clemson.

SMU’s offense turned the ball over six times in that game and Duke missed two field goals that could have swung the result. Facing Clemson’s elite defensive personnel, the Mustangs could find themselves in a similar low-scoring grind.

Clemson’s offense has also struggled to put up points consistently. Aside from a tune-up game against FCS opponent Citadel in Week 13, the Tigers haven’t scored more than 24 points in any of their last five games.

Their reliance on Klubnik’s arm in high-pressure situations could lead to mistakes against SMU’s opportunistic defense, which ranks seventh nationally in points off turnovers.

With both teams emphasizing ball security and the stakes at their highest, a slower, more methodical pace seems likely.

This favors the under, especially with both defenses capable of winning their respective battles in the trenches.

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Clemson vs. SMU odds

Clemson	+115 ML
SMU	-135 ML
Spread	SMU -2.5
Total Points	O/U 56

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.