College Football Playoff: Clemson vs. Texas Picks, Predictions and Odds

The runners-up in the SEC, the No. 5 Texas Longhorns (11-2), face the ACC Champion No. 12 Clemson Tigers (10-3) in the first round of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.

Texas will host the game in Austin as the higher seed, creating a unique homecoming for Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik, who returns to the same city where he won three state titles in high school.

This clash pits a hyped-up Clemson squad, fresh off their thrilling 34-31 ACC Championship win over SMU, against a Texas team looking to bounce back after a narrow 22-19 overtime loss to Georgia in the SEC title game.

Clemson vs. Texas betting picks and predictions

Under 51.5 Total Points (-110)

While Texas enters as an -11.5-point favorite, backing the Under on the 51.5 total points line looks like the best value here.

The Longhorns may have superior talent, but their offense has struggled to pull away in recent weeks. Quarterback Quinn Ewers has been solid but injury-riddled and unspectacular, throwing for 2,665 yards and 25 touchdowns.

However, he’s also tossed three interceptions in the last two games and has looked less mobile since suffering a high ankle sprain on November 23.

Texas’ ground attack, led by Quintrevion Wisner, remains a recent focal point. Wisner has emerged late in the season as the Longhorns’ top back, posting 158 yards against Kentucky and 186 against Texas A&M.

That said, Wisner was limited to just 51 yards on 19 carries against Georgia. He will have to get back on track and lead a backfield that should get plenty of touches against a Tigers’ defense that ranked 14th in the ACC against the run. 

For Clemson, the offensive concerns are just as stark. The Tigers struggled to produce against SEC defenses earlier in the season, managing just three points against Georgia and 14 against South Carolina. With Texas ranking seventh in defensive estimated points added (EPA) per rush and Clemson struggling to establish the run, it’s hard to envision the Tigers breaking through for significant points.

Texas’ defense has also played a pivotal role in keeping games below the total. The Under has hit in four of the Longhorns’ last five games as the favorite, and the Under has hit in eight of Texas' last nine contests overall. Clemson, meanwhile, has seen the Under hit in four of their last six games and nine of their last 13 road games.

Add in potential injuries to Clemson RB Phil Mafah and backup Jay Haynes – both of whom are questionable for this game – and the Tigers’ ground attack could be even less effective. Texas receiver Isaiah Bond’s injury status is also worth monitoring, as his absence would further limit the Longhorns’ vertical game.

All signs point to a defensive grind. Texas’ physicality will eventually wear Clemson down, but the Tigers’ ability to force turnovers should help keep the Longhorns from running away with the game. A final score in the realm of 23-13 feels realistic, comfortably cashing Under 51.5.

Clemson +11.5 (-110)

Clemson arrives at the playoff with momentum but a mixed resume. Despite a pair of losses in November to South Carolina and Louisville, Dabo Swinney’s squad has relied on an opportunistic defense and a steady Cade Klubnik to secure big wins.

Klubnik has made clear strides as a junior this season, throwing for 3,303 yards, 33 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions. He ranks 15th nationally in QBR (78.9) and showed composure under pressure in the ACC title game with 4 touchdown passes and 262 yards on 24/41 passing.

Saturday’s game, however, represents Klubnik’s toughest test yet. Texas boasts one of the nation’s stingiest defenses, ranking second nationally in scoring defense and first against the pass. Klubnik’s ability to escape pressure and use his legs will be critical, particularly with Clemson’s running back situation in question.

Mafah, the Tigers’ lead back, has totaled 1,106 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns this year but has hit a major cold spell late in the season. Against elite SEC defenses – Georgia and South Carolina – he combined for just 125 yards on 36 carries.

Clemson’s ground game, which ranks 14th in EPA per rush, faces a massive challenge against Texas’ front seven.

The Tigers' receiving corps has been balanced, though lacking a true game-breaker. Antonio Williams leads the unit with 71 receptions for 838 yards and 10 touchdowns, while tight end Jake Briningstool has proven himself as a sure-handed safety blanket.

Williams has proven capable against tough competition, posting 99 yards against South Carolina and 76 against Georgia earlier this year. Klubnik will need these options to make contested catches against a physical Longhorns secondary.

Defensively, Clemson thrives on forcing mistakes. They rank second nationally in turnover margin (+16), an edge they’ll hope to exploit against a Texas offense that has shown inconsistency. The Tigers' defensive line, led by TJ Parker (11 sacks), will aim to pressure Ewers into errant throws.

While Clemson has its flaws, their ability to hang around in big games – combined with Texas’ struggles to close out opponents – makes the Tigers a strong play at +11.5.

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Football on site.

Clemson vs. Texas odds

Clemson	+350 ML
Texas	-450 ML
Spread	Texas -11.5
Total Points	O/U 51.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.