Alabama vs. Tennessee: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The Week 8 matchup between the No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide and the No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers in the SEC is set to be one of the most thrilling contests of the season.

With both teams ranked in the top 15, this game has significant College Football Playoff implications. Plus, it will have a big impact on the SEC landscape as Alabama and Tennessee are two of six teams to have one loss in the conference.

Alabama vs. Tennessee betting picks and predictions

Tennessee +3.0 (-110)

Tennessee has been solid against the spread (ATS) in 2024, covering 66.7 percent of the time (4-2), while Alabama is 3-3 ATS.

Historically, Alabama has dominated Tennessee, covering in six of their last eight matchups, but the Volunteers’ defensive line this year presents a formidable challenge for Alabama’s inconsistent offensive line.

Alabama’s offensive line ranks 102nd in line yards and 106th in stuff rate, which plays directly into Tennessee’s strength. The Volunteers rank first in front-seven havoc and fourth in line yards, led by potential top-five NFL Draft pick James Pearce Jr.

With Alabama’s vulnerability in pass protection, Tennessee’s defense could control the line of scrimmage and put pressure on Alabama’s quarterback, Jalen Milroe.

Milroe, while dynamic, has been sacked 11 times this season and Tennessee’s pass rush will likely add to that total. Although Milroe has shown impressive dual-threat ability, leading Alabama in rushing touchdowns (11), his offensive line's struggles against a defensive front like Tennessee’s could limit his impact on the ground.

On the other side, Tennessee’s offense has been inconsistent, particularly through the air. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has been held under 200 passing yards in four straight games, and while his numbers aren't flashy, he has limited turnovers, throwing just one interception in that span.

Tennessee’s strength is in its run game, where Dylan Sampson leads the team with 699 yards and an impressive 15 touchdowns.

However, we expect Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel to flip the script from the defensive-minded, conservative offensive approach we’ve seen the last couple of games. 

Tennessee will come out playing with tempo and look to take deep shots against a potentially vulnerable Alabama secondary.

The Volunteers' home-field advantage at Neyland Stadium, coupled with a top-tier defense and a new-look offensive approach, could be enough to keep this game within a field goal with potential for an upset.

Over 56.5 Total Points (-110)

Alabama has hit the Over often this season, with six of its last seven games surpassing the total. Additionally, Alabama has scored at least 27 points in three straight games, including a 41-point outing against Georgia’s elite defense.

This suggests that while Tennessee’s defense will make things difficult for Milroe and the Tide, Alabama will still find ways to put points on the board.

Alabama ranks 11th in EPA per play and fourth in explosiveness, making it one of the most dynamic offenses in the country when clicking. With weapons like wide receiver Ryan Williams (576 yards, six TDs), who is averaging 25 yards per catch, the Tide can strike quickly and put up points in a hurry.

On the flip side, Tennessee’s offense has the potential to exploit Alabama’s youthful secondary. The Tide’s pass defense has been a liability this season, ranking 52nd in EPA per pass and 101st in passing explosiveness allowed.

Nico Iamaleava may have struggled recently, but Heupel is known for his offensive creativity. Expect Heupel to dial up plays that challenge Alabama’s secondary, particularly with deep shots to Dont’e Thornton Jr., who leads the team in receiving yards (295) despite having only nine catches.

Tennessee will also likely lean on its run game to control the tempo, with Sampson and DeSean Bishop combining for over 1,000 rushing yards this season. However, to keep pace with Alabama, they will need to connect on a few big plays through the air.

The Volunteers have the talent to score on Alabama’s defense, which has shown vulnerability at times, allowing Vanderbilt to score 40 points earlier in the season. This one could turn into a shootout.

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Football on site.

Alabama vs. Tennessee odds

Alabama	-155 ML
Tennessee	+130 ML
Spread	Alabama -3.0
Total Points	O/U 56.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.