Two powerhouse programs meet as No. 11 Alabama faces Michigan in a New Year’s Eve bowl game showdown at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.
The game kicks off at Noon ET on ESPN, with both teams seeking to close out their seasons on a high note after navigating the challenges of retooling under first-year head coaches.
Alabama enters the bowl game at 9-3 under Kalen DeBoer, who found stability in dual-threat quarterback Jalen Milroe but saw flashes of inconsistency down the stretch.
Meanwhile, Michigan endured a 7-5 season under Sherrone Moore, with a revolving door at quarterback and several key players opting out of the bowl game.
This matchup promises to highlight Alabama’s offensive firepower against Michigan’s ground-and-pound approach, with the Tide entering as 13-point favorites.
Alabama has the clear edge in this matchup due to their stability at quarterback and Michigan’s depleted roster.
Jalen Milroe has been the centerpiece of the Crimson Tide’s offense all season, and this game presents a prime opportunity for him to shine in what will be his final college performance.
Milroe accounted for over 3,000 total yards and 27 touchdowns this season, providing Alabama with a dynamic dual-threat option that Michigan’s defense will struggle to contain.
Michigan’s defense, ranked 18th against the run by EPA, remains solid up front, but their pass defense is a glaring weakness, especially with starting cornerback Will Johnson and defensive tackle Mason Graham opting out.
As a result, Alabama wide receiver Ryan Williams, who led the team in receptions and touchdowns, could have a breakout performance after a quiet end to the regular season.
Expect DeBoer to script plays early to get Williams involved, particularly against a Michigan secondary lacking depth.
On the other side of the ball, Alabama’s defense should have little trouble containing Michigan’s one-dimensional offense.
The Wolverines will lean heavily on running back Kalel Mullings, who rushed for 948 yards and 12 touchdowns this season, but they’ll face a Crimson Tide front seven that’s geared up to stop the run.
Without Donovan Edwards and tight end Colston Loveland, Michigan lacks explosive options, forcing quarterback Davis Warren into uncomfortable passing situations. Warren’s nine interceptions to just six touchdowns this season highlight his struggles under center, and Alabama’s opportunistic secondary could capitalize on his mistakes.
Alabama also enters this game with motivation to make a statement after being left out of the College Football Playoff.
With DeBoer’s squad focused on finishing strong and Michigan appearing to treat this game as a tune-up for next season, the Tide should have no trouble covering the -13.0-point spread.
While Alabama should control this game from start to finish, it’s unlikely to turn into a high-scoring affair. Both teams have shown offensive limitations, and Michigan’s depleted roster only adds to the likelihood of a low total.
For Alabama, Milroe’s dual-threat ability will drive the offense, but their passing game has been inconsistent. Over the last two regular-season games, Milroe threw four interceptions and failed to record a passing touchdown, underscoring Alabama’s struggles to push the ball downfield.
Additionally, with running back Justice Haynes entering the transfer portal, the Tide’s backfield depth is limited behind Jam Miller, which could lead to more conservative play-calling.
On the Michigan side, the offense has struggled to generate points all year, averaging just 21.4 points per game against major-conference opponents.
Warren has failed to provide stability at quarterback, and with several offensive starters sitting out, the Wolverines are unlikely to sustain long drives.
Mullings is a capable running back, but Alabama’s defense, which allows just 20.6 points per game, has the talent to shut him down and force Michigan into passing situations where Warren has struggled.
The Wolverines will look to control the clock and shorten the game, leaning heavily on their run game to keep Alabama’s offense off the field.
However, without explosive playmakers, it’s unlikely they’ll find much success against a Tide defense capable of stacking the box. This approach, combined with Alabama’s methodical offensive style, makes it difficult to envision either team reaching the 20s in scoring.
Historical trends also favor the Under in this type of matchup. Bowl games with large point spreads often result in lower-scoring games, as the dominant team typically focuses on controlling the clock once they secure a comfortable lead.
Given Alabama’s likely defensive dominance and Michigan’s offensive struggles, Under 43.0 is the best play here.
Read more betting picks and predictions for College Football on site.
Alabama | -550 ML |
Michigan | +400 ML |
Spread | Alabama -13.0 |
Total Points | O/U 43.0 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.