Alabama vs. LSU: Picks, Predictions and Odds

This Saturday night, the No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2) travel to Baton Rouge for a high-stakes clash against the No. 15 LSU Tigers (6-2) under the lights of Tiger Stadium.

Both teams come into the matchup off bye weeks, giving them extra time to recover and prepare for one of the SEC's most intense rivalries.

With both squads needing a win to maintain any realistic playoff hopes, expect fireworks in Death Valley at 7:30 PM ET on ABC/ESPN+.

The Crimson Tide enter the game following a resounding 34-0 victory over Missouri. LSU, meanwhile, had a tough outing against Texas A&M in its last appearance, losing 38-23 while managing only 35 rushing yards.

However, LSU’s passing game remains explosive and Tiger Stadium’s home-field advantage - especially in night games - could make this a challenging environment for Alabama.

Alabama vs. LSU betting picks and predictions

LSU to win (+125)

Betting on the LSU money line at +125 offers enticing value in a game where both teams are expected to air it out, exploiting weak defensive back units on either side.

LSU boasts an impressive 109-15 record in their last 124 night games at Tiger Stadium, where strange, momentum-swinging moments are common. In their last home game, LSU toppled No. 16 Ole Miss 29-26 in overtime as a field goal underdog.

Despite the loss to Texas A&M, quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has been prolific this season, throwing for 2,627 yards and 20 touchdowns. His ability to hit deep passes could be critical against Alabama’s secondary, which has been vulnerable due to inexperience and struggles against quality QBs.

Nussmeier, who threw for 405 yards against the Aggies, did throw three interceptions, but his success against man coverage (8.9 percent touchdown rate and no interceptions) suggests he’ll be well-suited to attack Alabama’s man-heavy scheme.

The Tigers will also have the benefit of a rested roster as well as coach Brian Kelly’s 21-3 record when coming off a bye week. Alabama’s road struggles, with recent losses at Vanderbilt and Tennessee, highlight vulnerabilities that LSU can capitalize on, especially in an energized Tiger Stadium.

LSU’s offense has relied heavily on the pass, ranking 127th in rush rate. Their skilled receiving corps, led by Kyren Lacy and Aaron Anderson, should have opportunities to create mismatches against the Tide’s secondary, which has surrendered explosive plays and struggled to contain top receivers.

On the other side, Bama QB Jalen Milroe, with 1,937 passing yards and 13 touchdowns to six interceptions, has been more conservative against pressure this season, which could hinder Alabama’s ability to keep pace in a high-scoring game.

His mobility, however, remains a concern for LSU’s defense, as Milroe has racked up 380 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns, meaning he’ll be a factor both through the air and on the ground.

If LSU’s defense can contain Milroe’s running ability, it could make Alabama one-dimensional and give LSU the advantage.

Alabama’s reliance on freshman receiver Ryan Williams, with 702 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, will be a deciding factor in this game, as their run game, led by Jam Miller and Justice Haynes, hasn’t been particularly explosive.

While Bama is the favorite, we feel comfortable siding with the Tigers to win outright as home underdogs in a night game with favorable mismatches in key areas. 

Over 58.5 Total Points (-110)

With both teams known for their big-play potential and weak secondaries, this game promises plenty of points. Alabama’s and LSU’s secondaries have been exposed this season and both offenses will likely look to capitalize on this.

LSU has struggled to establish a running game and ranks 118th in rushing success rate, 89th in rushing Expected Points Added (EPA) and 79th in explosive run rate.

Meanwhile, Alabama has been most effective when Jalen Milroe uses his legs to make plays, so both teams will likely rely heavily on their quarterbacks.

For LSU, the offensive game plan is likely to revolve around passing, as their leading rusher has yet to surpass 400 yards on the season. Expect LSU to attempt to strike early and often against Alabama’s man coverage.

Alabama’s defense will need to adjust its strategy to avoid getting burned by LSU’s deep ball, but they’ll likely be forced to blitz, which could further expose their secondary.

In addition, Alabama’s offense, led by Milroe, has the firepower to keep up with LSU’s high-scoring potential. Milroe’s dual-threat ability allows him to exploit LSU’s defensive holes, especially as they have struggled to defend against mobile quarterbacks this season. 

Alabama has the 14th highest blitz rate in college football, which could lead to quick scoring opportunities for LSU as Nussmeier has excelled against pressure, with a 10.5% touchdown rate.

Quick possessions, 3-and-outs or explosive touchdowns could lead to a high-scoring game, with clock stoppages and limited time-consuming drives.

Moreover, both teams have seen the total go over frequently this season when facing high-powered offenses.

LSU has consistently shown it can produce points, while Alabama’s offense can also score in bunches, especially when forced to keep pace.

Given the talent at wide receiver on both sides and the potential for big plays, Over 58.5 points seems reasonable in a game where both offenses are likely to thrive.

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Football on site.

Alabama vs. LSU odds

Alabama	-150 ML
LSU	+125 ML
Spread	Alabama -3.0
Total Points	O/U 58.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.