Wisconsin vs. Michigan: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The final game of men’s conference tournament season tips off at 3:30 PM ET on CBS – the Big Ten Championship game between #5 seed Wisconsin and #3 seed Michigan. For the Badgers, this will be their fourth straight day of play, while Michigan takes the floor for the third consecutive day.

This game marks Wisconsin’s second straight Big Ten final appearance, and last year they were also the #5 seed, falling just short against Illinois. This time, they look to finish the job and claim the title.

Wisconsin’s tournament run has been a tale of redemption, avenging regular-season losses with dominant performances. After a first-round win over Northwestern, the Badgers dismantled UCLA 86-70, tying a Big Ten Tournament record with 19 made three-pointers.

In the semifinals, Wisconsin knocked off top-seeded Michigan State in a 77-74 thriller, thanks to a 32-point outing from All-American John Tonje. Meanwhile, Michigan has been steady and balanced, comfortably beating Purdue in the quarterfinal before escaping Maryland 81-80 on a coast-to-coast layup from Tre Donaldson at the buzzer.

These teams met once in the regular season, with Michigan winning 67-64 in Madison back in early December. That game saw brutal shooting from both sides, particularly Max Klesmit for Wisconsin.

Michigan’s frontcourt duo of Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf dominated, combining for 44 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists and 8 blocks. However, Wisconsin’s guards still managed to put up a fight, and the Badgers will be eager to rewrite that script in the title game.

Wisconsin vs. Michigan betting picks and predictions

Wisconsin -4.0 (-115)

This matchup sets up well for Wisconsin to continue their revenge tour and claim the Big Ten title. The Badgers’ #10-ranked KenPom offense will look to exploit Michigan’s defense, particularly through the physicality of their guards. John Tonje and John Blackwell are both bigger, stronger and more physical than Michigan’s backcourt, which lacks size and strength. Michigan is well-structured defensively, avoiding fouls and limiting three-point attempts, but their biggest weakness lies in one-on-one matchups against skilled offensive players.

Wisconsin will need to lean into their strengths, getting Tonje and Blackwell into favorable isolation situations while using Crowl and Winter as passing hubs when Michigan brings double teams in the post. The Badgers are unlikely to crash the offensive glass too aggressively due to Michigan’s strong transition game, but Winter and Blackwell’s ability to secure second-chance opportunities will be key. Michigan is not an elite defensive rebounding team, and Wisconsin should look to take advantage where possible.

Another key factor will be turnovers. Neither team forces many, but Michigan has shown a tendency to be sloppy with the ball all by themselves. If Wisconsin sticks to their disciplined approach, they can capitalize on Michigan’s miscues and control the tempo. The Badgers are a strong three-point shooting team, and while they struggled in the first meeting, they’ve shown they can get clean looks off the dribble and catch & shoot.

Ultimately, Wisconsin has the edge in backcourt play, and in March, that tends to be the deciding factor. Michigan’s size inside will pose challenges, but Wisconsin’s ability to dictate pace and create efficient shots should propel them to a cover.

Over 151.0 (-110)

Both teams have elite defenses – Wisconsin ranks #33 in KenPom defensive efficiency, while Michigan sits at 16th – but with the fatigue factor in play, we expect this game to be more high-scoring than the numbers suggest. Wisconsin’s semifinal game against Michigan State saw 151 total points despite the Badgers having a below-average shooting night from deep. Michigan, meanwhile, plays with pace and has been efficient offensively, particularly in the paint.

Michigan’s frontcourt duo of Wolf and Goldin will once again be a focal point. The Wolverines rank seventh nationally in two-point field goal percentage, and they’ll look to attack inside early and often. Wisconsin has been strong at limiting opponents near the rim, but they have struggled against elite post scorers. With Wolf and Goldin’s ability to finish efficiently, Michigan should be able to score at a steady clip.

On the other side, Wisconsin’s offense has been in rhythm all tournament, and they should get much cleaner looks than they did in the regular-season meeting. Their ball movement and dribble penetration create quality three-point opportunities, and with their confidence high after the UCLA performance, we expect them to knock down enough shots to push the total over. Michigan’s defense is sound, but they don’t generate many turnovers, meaning Wisconsin should be able to get their shots up without much disruption.

Additionally, neither team has the depth to play lockdown defense for a full 40 minutes after multiple days of action. Both squads will likely look to push the pace and generate transition opportunities to avoid grinding out possessions in the half-court. With both offenses capable of scoring efficiently when given clean looks, this game should trend toward the over.

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Wisconsin vs. Michigan odds

Wisconsin	-190 ML
Michigan	+160 ML
Spread	Wisconsin -4.0
Total Points	151.0 O/U

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.