Skip to content
GO TO bet365 Sports
ncaam college basketball picks
  1. College Sports
  2. NCAAB

UConn vs. Marquette: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The #25 UConn Huskies travel to Milwaukee to face the #9 Marquette Golden Eagles in a Big East clash at Fiserv Forum, with tip-off set for 8 PM ET on FOX.

UConn, the two-time defending national champions, is barely hanging on to a top-25 ranking, sitting at 15-6 overall and 7-3 in Big East play. The Huskies have struggled to find consistency in their first year without Donovan Clingan and key pieces from their championship runs.

Their offense remains a strength, with excellent ball movement and efficiency inside (ranking seventh nationally in 2PFG%), but their defense has been vulnerable, particularly in sending opponents to the free throw line and failing to generate turnovers. 

The Huskies rely on stretch forward Alex Karaban (15 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 3.2 APG), sharpshooter Solo Ball (14.6 PPG, 43% 3PT) and a pair of rim protectors in Tarris Reed and Samson Johnson to anchor their interior defense. However, UConn has been up and down in conference play, trading wins and losses in their last six games.

Marquette, on the other hand, has been the more reliable team. At 18-3 and 9-1 in Big East play, Shaka Smart’s Golden Eagles sit tied atop the conference standings. They boast a top-25 offense and an elite defense (ranked 13th by KenPom) while taking excellent care of the ball, committing the fewest turnovers in the nation. 

Kam Jones (18.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 6.3 APG) leads the charge, with key contributions from David Joplin, Stevie Mitchell and Chase Ross. Marquette’s aggressive full-court pressure forces the sixth-most turnovers in the country while maintaining defensive discipline by limiting fouls. However, their 2PFG defense (52.9%) is a major weakness, allowing teams to score efficiently once they break pressure.

With UConn’s slow pace and Marquette’s ability to dictate tempo, this game presents two strong betting angles: the under on the total and a lean toward Marquette covering at home. Let’s break down the best bets for this matchup.

UConn vs. Marquette betting picks and predictions

Under 143.5 (-110)

The under is the strongest play in this matchup. UConn plays at an extremely slow pace on offense and forces opponents into long possessions with their extended defensive pressure. While Marquette prefers to push tempo (ranked 29th in adjusted tempo), UConn’s defense is designed to disrupt rhythm, and they allow one of the lowest three-point attempt rates in the country. This means Marquette’s reliance on perimeter shooting (42nd-most 3PT attempts nationally) will be tested, especially given their inconsistent 32.8% team shooting from deep.

Additionally, both teams struggle to get to the free throw line. UConn takes very few free throws, and Marquette ranks 325th in free throw attempts per game. With fewer clock stoppages and minimal free points from the charity stripe, this game sets up well for a lower-scoring outcome.

Haslametrics also backs the under, showing both teams trending negatively in offensive momentum, with UConn at -1.40 and Marquette at -2.04.

Another key factor is that Marquette’s offensive style doesn’t fully exploit UConn’s defensive weaknesses. UConn struggles to defend without fouling, but Marquette rarely draws fouls. Additionally, UConn’s interior defense ranks 23rd in opponent 2PFG%, limiting an area where Marquette would normally look to capitalize after breaking pressure.

With UConn’s offense reliant on set plays and half-court execution, combined with Marquette’s defensive intensity, the under is the best bet on the board.

Marquette -6.0 (-110)

While not as strong as the under, there’s still solid reasoning behind backing Marquette to cover at home. The Golden Eagles have been significantly more consistent than UConn this season and are excellent at home, with statement wins over Purdue and Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, UConn has struggled in high-level games away from home, ranking -1.51 in Haslametrics’ away-from-home metric and, more importantly, ranking -4.91 in the Paper Tiger Factor, a measure of how well a team performs against top competition. Marquette, conversely, has a +2.09 Paper Tiger rating, indicating their ability to rise to the occasion in big matchups.

Marquette also has a significant edge in experience and cohesion. They start three senior leaders who have played in multiple UConn matchups, including Kam Jones, who has posted strong performances against the Huskies in the past. Their ability to pressure the ball without fouling gives them a major advantage over a UConn team that thrives on assisted baskets but struggles to create free-throw opportunities.

Additionally, UConn’s offense has been streaky, as evidenced by Karaban’s 1-14 shooting performance against DePaul last time out. If Marquette’s defensive intensity forces another poor shooting night from UConn’s key players, the Golden Eagles will be in prime position to cover.

One concern with this pick is Marquette’s over-reliance on the three-point shot. If they have an off night from deep, covering 6.5 points could be difficult. However, UConn has struggled to maintain momentum, and has lacked the defensive identity of their championship teams.

Given Marquette’s consistency, defensive edge and home-court advantage, backing them to cover is the play.

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NCAAB on site.

UConn vs. Marquette odds

UConn

+210 ML

Marquette 

-260 ML

Spread

Marquette -6.0

Total Points

O/U 143.5

Read UConn vs. Marquette: How to watch, TV channel, streaming, start time, predicted lineups and stats on site.

Read the latest NCAAB news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

Related Articles

bet365 uses cookies

We use cookies to deliver a better and more personalized service. For more information, see our Cookie Policy

New to bet365? Bet $1 & Get $365 in Bonus Bets Join Now

Deposit required. Bonus Bet winnings are added to Bonus Bets balance. Bonus Bet wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply.