UConn vs. Florida: Picks, Predictions and Odds

We've got a massive matchup on our hands to kick off the second and final day of Round of 32 action, as the UConn Huskies will square off against the Florida Gators in the West Region on Sunday. 

The two-time defending champions won and covered their 13th straight Men's Tournament game on Friday, but it sure wasn't easy, as the Huskies needed to make a ton of plays down the stretch to put away an Oklahoma team that was one of the lowest rated sides from the SEC to make the field of 68.

As for the Gators, it was business as usual for Florida in a pretty routine 26-point victory over Norfolk State to open its Men's Tournament campaign. The top seed seemed to be going through the motions in the second half of the game, which gives our expert the impression that Florida should have plenty of gas in the tank for Sunday’s marquee matchup. 

Will UConn be able to spring the upset, or will Florida keep on rolling and advance to the Round of 16? 

Let’s get into our expert’s UConn vs Florida best bets for this highly anticipated West Region Men's Tournament second-round matchup on Sunday.

UConn vs. Florida betting picks and predictions

Florida -9.0 (-115)

This Florida team can win in a number of different ways, and it all starts in the backcourt. The exceptional guard trio of Will Richard, Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin form a massive edge for Todd Golden's offense in this one, and it wouldn't be shocking in the slightest if Florida was able to spread out the Huskies on the perimeter and generate wide open looks from beyond the arc. 

Furthermore, the Gators should look to get out and run in transition as much as possible, especially since UConn is not a team that creates havoc or forces live-ball turnovers on defense, ranking 282nd in turnovers forced per Barttorvik.

The Gators are also one of the best teams in the nation on the glass (sixth in offensive rebounding percentage) while the Huskies are 155th in defensive rebounding rate over the last three months, so there should be chances for Florida to generate second-chance points throughout the game.

Florida should be able to create mismatches with its excellent frontcourt of seven-footers, which could give this middling Huskies defense (82nd in adjusted efficiency per Barttorvik) a ton of problems, particularly once they turn to their bench. 

This is a game where UConn's lack of talent and depth compared to a true national title contender like Florida should be exposed as the game wears on. With that in mind, our expert is taking Florida to cover in the favorite role, making the Gators one of our best bets of the Sunday slate.

Over 150.5 (-110)

Given that both of these offenses should hold edges over the opposing defenses in this matchup, our expert’s game totals bet for this one is on the over 150.5. 

In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if the Gators were able to cover the spread and the game sails over this total as a result, as that is the likely avenue for Florida to cover the number from a game script perspective.  

The virtues of Florida’s offense have already been extolled, and the Gators will be taking on a UConn team that has experienced a litany of issues on defense of late, with the Huskies sitting outside the top 150 in adjusted defensive efficiency over the past month. 

Therefore, it’s reasonable to expect that UConn will struggle to slow down a top-five offense in Florida that not only shoots the ball very well from beyond the three-point arc, but can also attack the rim and get whatever it wants at the basket.

Lastly, while Florida’s defense is the much stronger unit in this game, neither team is disciplined enough to defend effectively without fouling, as the Huskies are ranked 334th in free throw rate allowed, while the Gators are 170th in that same metric. 

All things considered, the over is the only way to look at Sunday’s matchup. 

Read more College Basketball betting picks and predictions on site.

UConn vs. Florida odds

UConn	+390 ML
Florida	-525 ML
Spread	Florida -9.0
Game Total	O/U 150.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.