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Alabama vs. UConn: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

Read the latest betting picks, predictions, odds and player props for the men's college basketball tournament national semifinal between No. 1 UConn and No. 4 Alabama.

At this point, UConn’s success in March is well documented, as the Huskies have won 10 consecutive tournament games dating back to last season’s National Championship run.

Will the Huskies continue their run of dominance to reach the final or will Alabama spring a massive upset and advance to the title game? Let’s get into it.

Alabama vs UConn betting picks and predictions

UConn -12

Based on some projection models, including KenPom, the spread for this game should be closer to nine points than the 11.5-point number it’s currently sitting at.

Therefore, if you’re looking to wager on UConn at this point, there is a bit of a tax that’ll have to be paid. With that being said, going back to the well with the Huskies is the only way our expert can look in this matchup. 

There is one path for Alabama to keep this game close and that path is for the Crimson Tide to get out in transition and hit a plethora of threes.

However, that just doesn’t happen against this UConn defense, which is now top-5 in adjusted efficiency at KenPom. In fact, the Huskies have surrendered less than 70 points in 12 of their last 14 games, with most of their wins coinciding with holding opponents to less than 60 points in those games.

Danny Hurley’s team has crushed its opponents by 25, 30, 23 and 39 points over their four tournament games thus far. At this point, the Huskies have won 10 straight postseason games by 13 or more points while covering the spread in all 10 contests. It’s hard to bet against that on Saturday.

Under 161.5

This is a hard total to get a hand on, as both of these teams have the capability to score in bunches, particularly if these offenses are hitting threes early in the shot clock.

However, given that this is a high-stress game and possessions should be more limited as a result, going with the under is the preferred option in this matchup.

Alabama has been a run-and-shoot team all season long, but the Crimson Tide have been focusing on scoring in the paint throughout this tournament.

Therefore, both teams should play through their big men on offense while clearing the glass effectively on the defensive side of the ball, thus limiting second-chance points for the opponent. 

If UConn is going to dictate the pace and cover the spread, the Huskies are more likely to slow things down and limit Alabama’s effectiveness from beyond the arc. That lends itself to an under.  

Grant Nelson under 9.5 points (-115)

There are plenty of player prop markets in this crucial matchup, but the one to hone in on is for Grant Nelson to record less than 9.5 points, which is listed at -115 odds. 

Nelson is coming off a pair of great performances over the weekend, racking up 24 points and 12 rebounds on nearly 67% shooting in a win over North Carolina before posting eight points, seven rebounds and two blocks in 21 minutes against Clemson.

However, things should be much more difficult against a UConn team that has elite defenders at every position and should control the paint with Donovan Clingan around the basket. 

Points will be hard to come by on the perimeter and inside as well, so Nelson clearing this number would be a surprise. This is especially true if he gets into foul trouble and his minutes are limited, much like they were against Clemson.

Read more Men’s College Basketball Tournament coverage.

Alabama vs UConn odds

Alabama

+550 ML

UConn

-800 ML

Spread

UConn -12

Totals

O/U 161.5

Alabama vs UConn player props

Player Points

Mark Sears (Alabama)

O/U 20.5

Triston Newton (Connecticut)

O/U 16.5

Cam Spencer (Connecticut)

O/U 15.5

Donovan Clingan (Connecticut)

O/U 15.5

Alex Karaban (Connecticut)

O/U 13.5

Grant Nelson (Alabama)

O/U 9.5

Read Alabama vs UConn: How to watch, TV channel, streaming, start time, injury report and stats

Read the latest college basketball news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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