Texas vs. Xavier: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The last of four Men’s Tournament play-in games features a high-stakes matchup between the Xavier Musketeers (21-11, 13-7 Big East) and the Texas Longhorns (19-15, 6-12 SEC).

Both teams have fought through grueling conference schedules, and now, with their seasons on the line, they battle for the No. 11 seed in the Midwest Region and a chance to face No. 6 seed Illinois in Milwaukee.

On paper, this is a compelling contrast of styles. Xavier, led by head coach Sean Miller, boasts elite shooting efficiency, ranking among the best in the nation in three-point percentage and free-throw shooting. Texas, under Rodney Terry, counters with superior depth, a projected NBA lottery pick in freshman Tre Johnson, and the battle-tested experience of competing in the rugged SEC.

The game being played in Dayton, Ohio, gives Xavier a geographical edge, but Texas has the raw talent and physicality to make this a fight to the finish. Let's break down our best bets.

Texas vs. Xavier betting picks and predictions

Texas +3.0 (-110)

The biggest advantage Texas holds is depth. While Xavier primarily operates with a seven-man rotation, Texas has a true 10-deep roster. Over the course of 40 minutes, fresh legs could play a pivotal role, especially against a Xavier team that expends a lot of energy creating offense through ball movement.

The Longhorns also feature the most talented player in this matchup in freshman Tre Johnson. The projected lottery pick averages 19.8 points per game while shooting 39.2% from three and 89.1% from the free-throw line. Johnson has a proven ability to take over games and both take and make impossible shots, as evidenced by his 39-point explosion against Arkansas and a 29-point performance on a neutral floor against Ohio State. If he catches fire, Texas could not only cover but win outright.

Another key factor is Texas' defensive ability to force Xavier into uncomfortable shot selections. The Longhorns excel at limiting three-point attempts, which could neutralize one of Xavier's biggest strengths, their elite 38.8% three-point shooting. Xavier thrives on drawing fouls and getting to the free-throw line, which could and likely will exploit Texas’ dead-last SEC ranking in free-throw attempts allowed. However, Texas has the size and athleticism to contest Xavier shots without fouling excessively – if they play with some discipline.

Xavier’s offense is powered by the duo of Ryan Conwell and Zach Freemantle. Conwell, a 41.8% three-point shooter, is coming off a 38-point performance against Marquette in the Big East Tournament. He has hit at least four threes in each of his last five games and is a key reason Xavier ranks fourth nationally in points off assists.

Meanwhile, Freemantle, a 6’9” forward, leads the Musketeers in scoring with 17.3 points per game while adding 7.1 rebounds and 2.1 assists. Xavier’s offensive efficiency is undeniable, but their limited depth and reliance on Freemantle and Conwell make them vulnerable if either struggles.

Another critical factor is the strength of schedule. Texas played in the toughest conference in college basketball this year, regularly facing elite competition in the SEC. They proved their mettle in the SEC Tournament by defeating two tournament teams, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M, before falling to Tennessee.

Xavier, while solid in the Big East, did not face the same level of consistent competition. Texas’ superior athleticism and ability to disrupt Xavier’s offensive rhythm make them the bet to cover +3.0 – even if Xavier emerges victorious in the end.

Under 149.5 (-110)

This game features two teams that can score, but the under presents strong value due to the way these teams match up defensively, and the fact Texas has the potential to flop with inefficiency, as they rank 350th in Rim & 3 rate, per ShotQuality.

Both teams do an excellent job limiting three-point attempts, which should naturally suppress scoring. Xavier ranks among the best in the country in three-point percentage, but Texas' perimeter defense forces teams into mid-range jumpers and contested shots inside the arc. Likewise, Xavier's defense specializes in limiting second-chance points and transition scoring, areas Texas will look to exploit.

Texas also does a great job running opponents off the three-point line, which aligns with Xavier’s offensive tendencies. While Xavier is elite in three-point percentage, they do not take a high volume of threes outside of Conwell. Texas will force Xavier into mid-range looks, where the Musketeers are far less efficient.

Another factor to consider is the natural nerves and slower pace that often come with play-in games. Both teams understand the stakes, and early in the game, we could see a feeling-out process that leads to a lower-scoring first half. Additionally, Texas struggles to get to the free-throw line consistently, and Xavier plays disciplined defense without fouling, which could limit easy points from the charity stripe.

On the other end, Texas needs to find ways to score inside, as Xavier limits three-point attempts but allows plenty of mid-range and interior looks. While the Longhorns have capable scorers outside Johnson, like Tramon Mark, Jordan Pope and Arthur Kaluma, their success will hinge on finishing around the rim. If Xavier’s defense holds strong, Texas could struggle to generate consistent offense.

While both teams are capable of offensive explosions, the defensive strengths on both sides, combined with the high-pressure nature of this elimination game, point to a game that stays under the total of 149.5.

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Texas vs. Xavier odds

Texas	+135 ML
Xavier	-160 ML
Spread	Xavier -3.0
Total	O/U 149.5

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.