Texas Tech vs. Arkansas: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The nightcap to Thursday's four-game slate in the men's college basketball tournament round of 16 features a matchup between No. 10 Arkansas and No. 3 Texas Tech.

The winner of this West Region semifinal will advance to the regional final and face either No. 4 Maryland or No. 1 Florida, who square off earlier in the evening.

Arkansas is traveling across the country from Providence, Rhode Island, but will have had four full days of rest before this game. Texas Tech, coming in from Wichita, Kansas, is also well-rested. Both teams enter the game with momentum, though Arkansas has been the more surprising story of the tournament so far. 

The Razorbacks have defied expectations, knocking off two of the most respected coaches in college basketball - Bill Self's Kansas in the first round and Rick Pitino's St. John's in the second. 

Meanwhile, Texas Tech has handled business against UNC Wilmington and Drake without its best perimeter shooter, Chance McMillian. With both teams potentially getting key players back from injury, this matchup has all the makings of a classic.

Texas Tech vs. Arkansas betting picks and predictions

Arkansas +5.5 (-110)

Arkansas was an underdog in both of its tournament wins but covered with ease, winning outright in each game. The Razorbacks closed as a +5.5 underdog against Kansas and a +7.5 underdog against St. John's but won 79-72 and 75-66, respectively.

In the victory over Kansas, Arkansas relied on its length and athleticism to disrupt the Jayhawks on both ends. Frontcourt duo Jonas Aidoo and Trevon Brazile combined for five blocks and four steals, controlling the paint against a Kansas team that thrives inside the arc. 

Aidoo, who averages fewer than seven points per game, erupted for 22 points, while Brazile secured 12 rebounds in a double-double effort. The backcourt duo of D.J. Wagner and Johnell Davis also made an impact, combining for 32 points. 

Despite struggling from beyond the arc, Arkansas excelled where it always does: getting to the free-throw line, attacking inside and creating turnovers. The Razorbacks hit 17/20 free throws, scored 34 points in the paint and forced 16 turnovers against the Jayhawks.

The second-round win against St. John's followed a similar formula, though this time, it was a pair of freshmen who stole the show. Forward Karter Knox contributed 15 points, six rebounds and four blocks, while Billy Richmond III came off the bench to lead the team with 16 points and nine rebounds. 

Despite shooting just 2/14 from three, making only 70 percent of their free throws, losing the rebounding battle and forcing just six turnovers, Arkansas dominated where it mattered most – scoring 46 points in the paint.

This Arkansas team fits the mold of a Power 5 squad that nobody took seriously heading into the tournament but now looks capable of a deep run. And the Razorbacks haven't even been at full strength. They've been missing their best player – leading scorer (15.6 PPG), leading rebounder (6 RPG) and top defender (1.7 steals per game) Adou Thiero – who has been sidelined for eight straight games. 

However, Thiero is trending toward playing on Thursday. Will his return disrupt the team's newfound chemistry or ignite an even deeper run?

Texas Tech also enters this game with questions about its roster. The Red Raiders have been without their third-leading scorer and top three-point shooter, Chance McMillian (14.2 PPG, 43.4 percent 3PT), who has yet to play in the tournament. Despite his absence, Tech handled UNC Wilmington 82-72 in the first round and pulled away from Drake 77-64 in the second.

Against Wilmington, the Red Raiders leaned on veteran sharpshooter Kerwin Walton, who stepped into the starting lineup and went nuclear from deep, hitting eight threes on 19 attempts for 27 points. 

Point guard Elijah Hawkins came just one rebound shy of a triple-double, while second-team All-American forward JT Toppin recorded a double-double. Tech shot just 28 percent from three and 65 percent from the foul line, yet still won by double digits.

In the second round, Tech's perimeter struggles continued, making just 2/14 from three, but their interior presence made the difference. Toppin dominated again, posting 25 points and 12 rebounds, while Darrion Williams, the team's second-leading scorer, poured in 28 points along with six rebounds and five assists.

Arkansas has already faced two top-12 defenses (Kansas and St. John's) and still managed to score 75+ in both games. Texas Tech's defense ranks 37th in KenPom's efficiency metrics, meaning this will actually be the easiest defense Arkansas has faced in the tournament. 

The Razorbacks' ability to get to the rim and play through contact could be a major factor, as Texas Tech's defense has been vulnerable inside. Tech boasts an elite perimeter defense, but Arkansas largely ignores the three-point line. 

The Razorbacks' backcourt trio of Davis, Wagner and Boogie Fland all excel at attacking off the dribble, and they should be able to exploit Tech's interior defense. Additionally, Arkansas ranks 18th in the nation in average height, while Texas Tech ranks 289th – giving the Razorbacks a major size advantage inside.

The big question for Texas Tech is whether McMillian returns. Tech ranks fifth in offensive efficiency per KenPom, but they rely heavily on three-point shooting (58th in attempts, 31st in percentage at 37.1 percent). So far, they've survived two poor outside shooting performances, but Arkansas' length and athleticism could continue to make perimeter looks difficult. 

Kansas' Zeke Mayo was the only true sharpshooter Arkansas has faced in this tournament, and he burned them for four threes and 18 points. If McMillian plays, Tech's offense could be much more dangerous.

Ultimately, Arkansas' ability to attack inside and control the pace should allow them to keep this game close. The Razorbacks' size, physicality and confidence make them a strong play to cover the spread at +5.5.

Over 147.5 Total Points (-110)

Both teams have clear paths to offensive success in this matchup. Arkansas should continue to drive the lane, score inside and get to the free-throw line, while Texas Tech will look to heat up from three and crash the offensive glass.

Arkansas has scored 75+ in both tournament games despite facing two elite defenses. Meanwhile, Texas Tech, despite struggling from deep, has put up 77 and 82 points in its two wins.

If McMillian returns, Texas Tech should get back to its usual high-level shooting, making them even more dangerous. On the flip side, Arkansas' pace and ability to get out in transition will be a challenge for Texas Tech, as both Kansas and St. John's struggled to slow the Razorbacks down.

With both teams capable of exploiting each other's defensive weaknesses, expect an up-tempo game where both offenses find plenty of success. Back this game to go Over 147.5 total points.

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Texas Tech vs. Arkansas odds

Arkansas	+200 ML
Texas Tech	-245 ML
Spread	Texas Tech -9.5
Total	O/U 147.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.