Texas A&M vs. Florida: Picks, Predictions and Odds

There is another tremendous slate of hoops in the SEC on Saturday, including a fascinating contest in Gainesville between the Texas A&M Aggies and Florida Gators.

While most college basketball fans are familiar with how good Florida has been this season, Texas A&M has flown a bit under the radar, but the Aggies have had the look of a team that could go deep in the NCAA Tournament. 

It most likely will come down to the play of senior guard Wade Taylor and a veteran frontcourt that can dominate on the glass. With that said, this Texas A&M team is one that appears to be fading fast following a third straight loss in conference play.

From a situational perspective, both teams are coming off close losses that came down to the final seconds earlier this week. With that said, our expert has a lot more faith in Florida to bounce back at home compared to what we have seen from a struggling Texas A&M team in recent weeks.

Will the Aggies find a way to keep the game close, or will the Gators roll over their conference rival at home? 

Let’s get into our expert’s Texas A&M vs Florida picks, predictions and best bets for this highly anticipated SEC showdown on Saturday.

Texas A&M vs Florida betting picks and predictions

Florida -9.5 (-115)

Buzz Williams' group excels at utilizing their size, as Texas A&M tops the nation in offensive rebounding percentage per Barttorvik. 

With that said, our expert does not expect the size and length of the Aggies to be as much of a factor this time around against an outstanding Gators frontcourt that features a trio of talented seven-footers that should be able to hold their own on the glass, in addition to creating mismatches with their prowess on the offensive end. 

As for the rest of the Florida offense, the exceptional guard trio of Will Richard, Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin is a massive edge for Todd Golden's team as well, and it wouldn't shock our expert at all if Florida was able to spread out the Aggies on the perimeter (111th in three-point defense) and generate wide open looks from beyond the three-point arc.

It goes without saying that Florida should look to get out and run as much as possible, especially since Texas A&M is not a team that excels at playing in transition (229th in adjusted tempo). 

There's also the matter of Texas A&M's massive turnover problems when the Aggies have the ball (243rd in turnover percentage per Barttorvik), which doesn't bode well against a talented and deep Florida team that should be hunting for steals and live-ball turnovers in front of a raucous crowd.  

Ultimately, a desperate Texas A&M team might be able to keep things close for the first half, but we can see the Gators pulling away and winning by double digits in front of their home fans. With that in mind, let’s lay the points with Florida -9.5 (-110) to get back on track in the swamp.  

Under 148.0 (-110)

While there are avenues for both sides to cover this spread, our game totals bet for this matchup is on the Under 148.0 (-110). 

On one hand, the style of play in this game is one that suits the Over on paper. After all, the Gators should look to get out and run in transition as much as possible, especially since Texas A&M’s defense is excellent when operating in the halfcourt (22nd in two-point defense at Barttorvik). 

However, this is simply a pretty large total considering that both of these defenses rank inside the top 20 in Barttorvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. Texas A&M’s offense could also really struggle if they are unable to get out and run in transition to create offense early in the shot clock.

On the other side, Florida’s offense is elite, but the Gators are still not a great three-point shooting team, ranking outside the top 100 in three-point percentage on the season. 

All things considered, our expert will back the under in what could be a slightly lower-scoring contest than what the market is projecting with this number. 

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Texas A&M vs. Florida odds

Texas A&M	+425 ML
Florida	-575 ML
Spread	Florida -9.5
Total Points	148.0 O/U

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.