Tennessee vs. Kentucky: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The SEC serves up another marquee matchup this Tuesday night as the No. 5 Tennessee Volunteers (20-4, 7-4 SEC) travel to Rupp Arena to take on the No. 15 Kentucky Wildcats (16-7, 5-5 SEC). 

The SEC has been the best conference in college basketball this season, and it’s not close.

This rematch follows Kentucky’s 78-73 upset victory in Knoxville on January 28th, when the Wildcats’ red-hot three-point shooting made the difference. However, recent trends suggest Tennessee is in a much stronger position this time around.

Tennessee has been installed as a three-point road favorite, and there are plenty of reasons to back the Vols in this spot.

After a shaky January that saw them drop four games, Tennessee has responded in dominant fashion, off to a 3-0 February start, including an emphatic 64-44 revenge win over Florida. Meanwhile, Kentucky has struggled with consistency in part due to injuries and remains highly vulnerable on the defensive end.

Tennessee is peaking at the right time, boasting the No. 1 defense in KenPom’s rankings and showing newfound offensive efficiency by reducing their reliance on three-point attempts. Given Kentucky’s defensive struggles, this sets up as a prime spot for Tennessee to cover and secure a critical conference win.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky betting picks and predictions

Tennessee -3.0 (-110)

Tennessee opened at -1.5, but the line has since moved to -3.0. And yet, they remain the pick on the road in hostile territory. The Volunteers’ physical prowess – on the glass and on defense – is the main reason to back them in this rematch. 

The Vols lead the nation in opponent three-point percentage (26.6 percent) while also ranking in the top 10 in two-point defense (44.4 percent). Kentucky torched Tennessee from deep in their last meeting, hitting 12/24 threes, and even though Tennessee allows the 17th-most three-point attempts, replicating that kind of shooting performance will be difficult against a defense that forces contested jumpers and limits clean looks. 

Adding to Kentucky’s concerns is the injury status of Jaxon Robinson and Lamont Butler. Robinson led the Wildcats with 17 points in the first matchup but is now dealing with a wrist injury. Butler, the team’s lead ball handler, emotional leader, best defender and third-leading scorer, is also a game-time decision. 

Butler has missed three straight games, and has not played since January 25th. If either or both of these players can't suit up or are limited, Kentucky will be missing key engines against Tennessee’s suffocating defense.

Albeit a small sample of three games, Tennessee’s improvement since the loss to Kentucky has been dramatic. The Vols have halved their three-point attempts in recent games, opting for a more efficient offensive approach centered around attacking the paint.

Felix Okpara’s emergence as an inside presence has given Tennessee an added dimension, while Zakai Zeigler and Chaz Lanier have rediscovered their shooting strokes and have been taking better shots after combining for a dismal 4/21 performance from deep in the first meeting.

Additionally, history suggests Tennessee is built for rematches. Just look at their two-game series with Florida: after a 30-point loss in Gainesville, the Vols flipped the script with a dominant 20-point win at home.

With extra motivation for revenge and a better understanding of Kentucky’s offensive tendencies, expect Tennessee to control the tempo and impose their defensive will on the Wildcats.

Under 149.5 Total Points (-110)

Kentucky boasts the No. 2 offense in KenPom’s efficiency ratings while Tennessee sits atop the defensive rankings. The first meeting produced 151 points, but that number was inflated by Kentucky’s scorching-hot shooting.

If the Wildcats regress to a more typical percentage from deep, the scoring pace should drop significantly.

One of Tennessee’s strengths is forcing opponents into long possessions. They rank among the best teams in the country at disrupting offensive rhythm and have held three of their last four opponents under 65 points. Kentucky thrives in transition and ranks 38th nationally in offensive tempo, but Tennessee will do everything in its power to slow the game down and make this a physical, grind-it-out battle.

Another key factor is Kentucky’s defensive rebounding. The Wildcats are one of the best teams in the country at limiting second-chance opportunities, which should help keep Tennessee’s scoring in check.

However, the flip side is that Kentucky struggles to defend the paint, which means Tennessee will likely opt for high-percentage looks inside rather than relying on three-pointers, learning from their mistakes of last time when they took 45 three-pointers. This should lead to longer possessions and fewer high-scoring sequences.

Tennessee’s ability to defend without fouling will also be crucial. The Vols have allowed opponents to attempt free throws at a lower rate than most teams, which limits easy points for Kentucky. If they can force the Wildcats into tough, contested jumpers rather than giving up free throws or transition buckets, the total should stay under.

Robinson is such a confident shooter and willing scorer, and if he is out or limited, Kentucky’s expected points may plummet. 

Finally, Kentucky’s recent defensive struggles suggest they may have difficulty containing Tennessee, but that doesn’t necessarily mean a high-scoring affair. The Wildcats rank 246th in defensive efficiency since the start of February, but Tennessee isn’t built to run up the score.

Their ideal path to victory involves slowing the game down and turning it into a defensive slugfest, which is a strong indicator for the Under.

Read the latest College Basketball betting picks and predictions on site.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky odds

Tennessee	-155 ML
Kentucky	+130 ML
Spread	Tennessee -3.0
Total Points	O/U 149.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.