Purdue vs. Michigan State: Picks, Predictions and Odds

A pivotal Big Ten showdown takes the stage on Tuesday night as the No. 14 Purdue Boilermakers (19-7, 11-4 Big Ten) travel to East Lansing to face the No. 13 Michigan State Spartans (20-5, 11-3 Big Ten).

Both teams are jockeying for position atop the conference standings, as well as for seeding in the National Championship tournament. The Spartans enter this game in second place in the conference with the Boilermakers half a game behind in third.

Purdue enters this contest on a two-game skid, suffering losses to No. 12 Michigan and No. 11 Wisconsin despite impressive continued offensive excellence from Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer. Smith, Kaufman-Renn and Loyer are the only three players on this team who log 30+ minutes per game.

Outside this trio, it's a revolving door of five role players who log between 15-20 minutes per contest, and the lack of consistent impact from anyone outside of their big three has held them back from the sustained success they have been accustomed to in recent seasons.

The Boilermakers' defensive struggles have also been a key issue, particularly against teams that can stretch the floor with three-point shooting. However, Michigan State presents a different challenge.

The Spartans are a deep, defensive-minded team that likes to attack the basket. They recently secured a massive 14-point road win over Illinois, marking a historic milestone for head coach Tom Izzo as he secured the most Big Ten wins in conference history.

Purdue vs. Michigan State betting picks and predictions

Purdue +3.5 (-105)

Purdue may be coming off back-to-back losses, but those defeats came against two of the best offensive teams in the conference. Both Michigan and Wisconsin can spread the floor, whip the ball around and knock down threes, capitalizing on Purdue's lack of elite length and defensive versatility. Michigan State, however, is not built in this way. 

The Spartans rank near the bottom of Division I in both three-point attempts (332nd) and three-point percentage (354th), meaning they are unlikely to exploit Purdue's 312th ranking in three-point attempts allowed.

Instead, Michigan State will look to dominate the interior, using their rebounding advantage and ability to score in the mid-range. While this presents a challenge for Purdue's lack of physicality and interior defense, which ranks 317th in two-point percentage allowed, it also means the Boilermakers can focus their defensive efforts on packing the lane and limiting second-chance points. 

Additionally, while MSU possesses great depth, Purdue stars Braden Smith and Trey Kauffman-Renn will be the best two scorers on the floor at all times and should be able to create enough efficient offense in their two-man, pick-and-roll game.

Smith, who is arguably the best point guard in the country, will control the tempo and find quality looks for himself and his teammates. Coming off a weak six-point performance, and knowing he should be able to find his mid-range spots in this matchup, Smith will look to explode in a game where he could record a double-double with points and assists while leading his team to victory. 

Kauffman-Renn, who erupted for 30 points in Purdue's loss to Wisconsin, remains a dominant low-post scorer who challenges any frontcourt unit he goes up against. When Kaufman-Renn is on the floor, Smith is even better, so as long as Kaufman-Renn stays out of foul trouble (which has been an issue on a couple of occasions), Purdue has a strong chance to cover the spread.

Michigan State does not have any one player that can take over and dominate the last couple minutes of a close game like Purdue does. As Michigan State's schedule has gotten more difficult in recent weeks, we have seen their lack of shooting ability and star power leave them exposed, resulting in three losses in five February games so far. 

The Boilermakers will lean on Smith and Kaufman-Renn early in the game and will look to build an early lead via Smith mid-range pull-up jumpers and Kaufman-Renn going to work on the block. By drawing fouls and condensing the MSU defense to the lane, Smith and Kaufman-Renn should be able to start working inside-out as the game wears on, finding shooters like Loyer, C.J. Cox, Miles Colvin and Cameron Heide for open three-point opportunities, 

While Purdue is searching for someone else to step up, they are still too well-coached and too well-led to drop three in a row. The official pick is for Purdue to cover +3.5 points, and the Boilermakers can even be taken to win a tight one on the road in an electric atmosphere. 

Over 148.5 Total Points (-110)

Both of these teams excel in different offensive areas, setting up a matchup that should be filled with scoring opportunities. Purdue's offensive star power makes them one of the most efficient teams inside the arc. The Boilermakers rely heavily on Smith's mid-range jumpers, pick-and-roll action and quick ball movement to perimeter shooters. 

Purdue is excellent at generating high-percentage looks, and while Michigan State defends the three-point line quite well, Purdue is more than capable of knocking down plenty of deep ones if they have any room at all. 

Michigan State's offensive rebounding ranks 15th nationally, and given Purdue's 177th-ranked defensive rebounding, the Spartans should have no trouble holding up their end of the scoring bargain. While Michigan State doesn't take or make many threes, their ability to crash the glass and attack the rim will help them maintain offensive efficiency to keep pace with their opponents. 

Plus, Michigan State has a stable of guards/wings (Jaden Akins, Jase Richardson, Coen Carr, Tre Holloman, Jeremy Fears Jr.) who excel at driving the lane, finishing at the rim, or pulling up and hitting a mid-range jumper. 

Another factor favoring the over is the pace of play. Michigan State plays up-tempo, looking to push in transition and get to the hoop as frequently as possible. Also, neither team forces many turnovers or commits them at a high rate.

This all suggests there will be plenty of possessions, leading to a steady offensive flow. And while Purdue prefers to slow the game down and run their half-court sets, in their last game, they combined with Wisconsin for 178 total points, so they can easily get baited into another track meet. 

Given the offensive strengths on both sides and the likelihood of a tightly contested battle with true overtime potential, the Over is the stronger play in this matchup.

Read more betting picks and predictions for College Basketball on site.

Purdue vs. Michigan State odds

Purdue	+150 ML
Michigan State	-135 ML
Spread	Michigan State -3.5
Total Points	O/U 148.5

Read the latest College Basketball news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.